Oklahoma at Texas Tech – Preview and Prediction
OKLAHOMA 14 TEXAS TECH (84)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Oklahoma -11 Sagarin ratings – Texas Tech -12.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Oklahoma 49 Texas Tech 35
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Oklahoma 49 Texas Tech 42
The Game
The Sooners have rolled off three straight Big 12 victories against tough opponents and will look to make it four in a row when they travel to Texas Tech on Saturday night. The Sooners played a really clean game last week and we came away very impressed. The talent is obviously there. The focus looks to be there now as well. Texas Tech is doing their best to make a mockery of playing defense but certainly have enough weaponry to make this a football game. This is one of their biggest games of the year and they get a chance to play spoiler at home on Saturday night.
The Match-Up
Oklahoma offense vs Texas Tech “defense”
The Sooners have put up 534,672,510 yards in their last three games and this week potentially presents their easiest match-up of the season. Even with RB Samaje Perine out this week, Oklahoma will be able to score at will, but of course this depends on their ability to take care of the football like they did last weekend (#122 turnover margin FBS). RB Joe Mixon is a great multi-purpose weapon and WR DeDe Westbrook has emerged as one of the best deep threats in college football. QB Baker Mayfield’s mobility looked perfectly fine last week. There is no reason to believe that the Sooners cannot put up a ton of points against the #117 rated defense in college football.
Texas Tech offense vs Oklahoma defense
This is where things get interesting. QB Patrick Mahomes has been lighting up opposing defenses (21 TD passes) and is healthy heading into this week’s contest. The Sooners’ pass defense is ranked #111 in the FBS in effiency, and while the win over Kansas St was impressive, it is a cold hard fact that the Texas Tech air attack is a lot more dangerous than Bazooka Joe Hubener and the Kansas St Wildcats. TCU almost survived a 42-3 Sooners’ run throwing the ball all over the yard when Oklahoma knew they had to pass. Texas Tech figures to score enough points to make this game competitive. At least for a while.
MEGA-MAZEMENT !
The Red Raiders are 11-6 ATS as a home dog the past 10 seasons including a 0-1 mark in 2016 (W Virginia)….Texas Tech has given up 44+ points in every game other than the contests vs SF Austin (!) and Kansas (!).
Summary
Oklahoma seems confident and full of run. The problem is that they usually throw in a stinker when you least expect it. We cannot trust the Red Raiders’ “defense” to endorse a full play but definitely think they can expose the Oklahoma secondary.
Conclusion
Official play: None
Lean: Texas Tech at +14 or better for small potatoes