Wisconsin at Iowa – Preview and Prediction
WISCONSIN 3.5 IOWA (42.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Wisconsin -3.5 Sagarin ratings -5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Wisconsin 23 Iowa 19.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Wisconsin 24 Iowa 17
The Game
It is an old-fashioned SNOT BUBBLER on Saturday afternoon as Wisconsin travels to Iowa City to take on the Hawkeyes. The Badgers sit with two conference losses and can hardly afford a third one, especially to Iowa, and especially given that YOUR Nebraska Cornhuskers are undefeated. It’s only a “must-win” in the sense of making the Big 10 Title Game. So ya, it’s yuuuge. Iowa has had a pretty average season by their standards sitting at 4-3, but here is the thing, they only have one conference loss and still get to face the Badgers and Nebraska at home. It’s there for the taking for Iowa but they cannot afford any more slip-ups.
The Match-Up
Wisconsin offense vs Iowa defense
It really all comes down to one thing. Can Iowa stop the Badgers rushing attack ? We were super-impressed with the way Wisconsin ran the ball against Ohio St so logic would dictate that they should be able to run the ball well against Iowa. The Hawkeyes’ run defense has been inconsistent. They have had some good moments but also got run over by Northwestern in their last home game for 198 yards. We also worry that Iowa has not exactly played a schedule full of JUGGERNAUTS (Miami Ohio, Iowa St, Rutgers, Purdue etc..) and Wisconsin has seen better defenses (LSU, Ohio St, Michigan) in 2016. QB Hornibrook looked awfully composed last week and should be able to hit enough passes to keep the chains moving. Just stay away from Desmond King. Overall, we feel that Iowa has the ability to slow Wisconsin down but have not shown themselves to be the same quality defense as the 2015 unit. They are #17 in the NCAA in turnover margin and it would really go a long way if the defense could steal a possession or two.
Iowa offense vs Wisconsin defense
It’s a similar conundrum for the Hawkeyes. Can they run the ball on the Badgers ? Iowa steamrolled last week vs Purdue (365 yards rushing) but were held relatively in check by Minnesota and were shut down by Northwestern. Given that Iowa is still without top WR Matt Vandeberg it seems to us that the Badgers can continue to be a brick wall against the run without much threat of a passing game to worry about. Iowa is ranked near the bottom of the FBS in time of possession (#120 !) and this feels like another game where they have a hard time keeping the ball.
MEGA-MAZEMENT !
Here are a bunch of trends to really confuse you ! ….The road team has won 5 straight in the series including each of the past three seasons…..But Iowa is 9-3 ATS L12 overall vs the Badgers…..But Iowa has only covered ONE of their last 10 home games ??? #Headache.
Summary
Wisconsin looks to have the edge in the trenches on both sides of the ball. What keeps us off the Badgers right now are the intangibles. They are coming off two grueling physical games vs Michigan and Ohio St, and while this is a yuuuuge game, these guys are only human. Seems to us we could excuse them for a sub-par performance if it should happen. They also have the Cornhuskers on deck but that game will essentially mean nothing if they lose this one. On the plus side for the Badgers, this will be Iowa’s 8th straight week without a bye so they are surely banged up as well. Tough call.
Conclusion
Official play: None
Lean: Wisconsin at -3 or better. Still thinking about promoting this one. But will not lay -3.5.