Appalachian St at Georgia Southern – Preview and Prediction
APPALACHIAN ST 5 GA SOUTHERN (45)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Appalachian St -7 Sagarin ratings – Appalachian St -5.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Appalachian St 25 Ga Southern 20
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Appalachian St 24 Ga Southern 17
The Game
Appalachian St looks to keep their undefeated conference record intact as they head on the road Thursday night to face long-time rival Georgia Southern in a Fun Belt showdown. The Eagles already have one conference loss (Ark St), and with three undefeated teams currently at the top of the Sun Belt standings, they can ill afford another loss if they want to take a shot at the conference crown. There is a lot of parody in this league and still a lot of football to be played.
The Match-Up
Appalachian St offense vs Ga Southern defense
It’s all about the running game. RB Jalin Moore has done a fine job in place of the injured Marcus Cox who is listed this week as ‘probable’ in the injury report. That would give the Mountaineers a really powerful one-two punch at RB. QB Taylor Lamb has not had the same success as last season and the passing game has been disappointing overall. We think that Appalachian St will pound the running game and make the Eagles prove they can stop it. Arkansas St recently ripped their run defense apart for well over 300 yards and even New Mexico St ran for 180+ vs the Eagles last week. It looks like a tough assignment for the defense, but they have been solid on 3rd downs this season (#18 FBS).
Ga Southern offense vs Appalachian St defense
This is a really good rushing team, but nowhere near the monster of the past two seasons. Last season they averaged about 100 more rushing yards PER GAME than they have managed to cobble together in 2016 (264 vs 363). Amaze your dental hygienist with that factoid. QB Kevin Ellison is a dangerous run/pass threat and can hit some big plays in the passing game if App St gets too greedy trying to stop the run. When Ellison (or one of the other 18 QBs they pop in and out) attempts to MATRICULATE in the passing game he needs to be careful because the Mountaineers play very good pass defense (8 TD 12 INT) in addition to stopping the run pretty well. The Eagles need to convert on 3rd downs against a really good defense and hit at least a couple big plays in the passing game to win this one.
MEGA MORSELS
The last two meetings between these two teams have been won in convincing fashion by the home team…..MEGALOCKS SUN BELT DEEP INSIDERS reminded us that G Southern has not played a home game since…..wait for it…..September 17 !….Road game….bye….3 more road games…..Finally home….Just a situational quirk to make you go hmmmm ?
Summary
Appalachian St is 22-4 in their last 26 games. Their losses ? Tennessee (OT), Miami, at Clemson, Ark St (2015 Sun Belt champs). Georgia Southern will be glad to have this game at home but will have more trouble on offense than the Mountaineers. Both defenses look sound and the stats across the board look surprisingly similar when we really dug into things. The big concern is what to make of the recent struggles of the Eagles’ run defense that has taken a major turn for the worse.
Conclusion
Official play: None
Lean: App St -6 or better. (currently sits -5 or so)