San Diego St at Utah St – Preview and Prediction
SAN DIEGO ST 6 UTAH ST (45)
MEGALOCKS LINE – San Diego St -6 Sagarin ratings – San Diego St -4.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: San Diego St 25.5 Utah St 19.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: San Diego St 24 Utah St 21
The Game
We cannot remember the last time San Diego St lost a conference game. We vaguely remember a bad game back in 1966 but we cannot say for sure. What we do know is that the Aztecs were 9-0 in the Mountain West last season on their way to the conference championship and have started this season going 3-0. Utah St has already lost three conference games, and at this point, they have been reduced to fighting for bowl eligibility and playing the role of ‘spoiler’.
The Match-Up
San Diego St offense vs Utah St defense
The #1 rusher in the FBS is no other than San Diego St RB Donnel Pumphrey who has accumulated 1,246 yards to go along with 13 TDs at 6.5 yards a pop. Rashaad Penny has done a nice job in relief so you know the OL is doing their job. Utah St is ranked #3 in the Mountain West in yards per carry allowed (3.61) and will provide a stern test for the Aztecs. QB Christian Chapman has been efficient in the passing game but we will need to check on #1 WR Mikah Holder (listed as Q) because the #2 WR in terms of receiving yards is Eric Judge with 149. The Aggies are fundamentally sound but will need to force FGs instead of TDs and try to stop the Aztecs from making any big plays in the passing game. Pumphrey will get his yards, but they need to hold everything else in check.
Utah St offense vs San Diego St defense
This is going to be a grind. RB Tonny Lindsey has stepped up admirably in the absence of Devante Mays but Utah St is probably going to feel like they are hitting a brick wall trying to run on the San Diego St defense. The Aztecs have not played a very tough schedule, but nontheless, they are ranked #2 in the FBS in run defense and should be able to shut down the Aggies rushing attack. QB Kent Myers has been playing fine at QB as a dual threat but does not have the weapons in the passing game (7 TD passes in 7 games) or the explosive running ability to challenge the San Diego St defense on a consistent basis.
MEGA-MAZEMENT !
San Diego St has won the last 9 games between these two teams but the only recent match-up was last season’s 48-14 slaughter in San Diego…..San Diego St has played some MW bottom feeders but have won their three conference games by a combined score of 85-13.
Summary
It certainly does not feel like a great match-up for the Aggies. The one thing that they do have in their favor is a very good defense that can make things difficult for the Aztecs provided that RB Pumphrey does not go crazy. Myers is not spectacular but is a good leader.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Lean: San Diego St -6 or better. Utah St TT under.