Air Force at Fresno St – Preview and Prediction

Air Force at Fresno St – Preview and Prediction

AIR FORCE 14 FRESNO ST (53)

MEGALOCKS LINE – Air Force -10          Sagarin ratings – Air Force -12.5

“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Air Force 33.5 Fresno St 19.5

Massey Ratings Projected Score: Air Force 34 Fresno St 21

The Game

We did not think that Air Force would be in this position. They got off to nice 4-0 start including a win over Navy and then subsequently lost three straight conference games to Wyoming, New Mexico and Hawaii (!). Fresno St has the coaching change angle going for them in this contest as they fired Tim DeRuyter after a 1-7 start. Their only win came against FCS foe Sacramento St. Apparently, they miss David Carr, yo.

The Match-Up

Air Force offense vs Fresno St defense

This is the dream match-up on paper. The #5 rushing offense in college football gets to feast on the Fresno St run defense that has been abused all season long (#124 FBS). Air Force has five different players with over 250 yards rushing and are a very tough team and system to defend. With all the wackiness and misdirection it may be hard for Fresno to harness the extra energy they will have on Friday night in a productive manner. QB Nate Romine has not been stellar throwing the football (40% completions) but the Falcons still rank very high in pass efficiency because they make you pay with big plays when they choose to MATRICULATE in the passing game. WR Jalen Robinette is averaging 27 yards a reception.

Fresno St offense vs Air Force defense

The Bulldogs have the makings of a decent offense. QB Chason Virgil has done a pretty good job considering that they are always behind on the scoreboard. They boast 3-500 yard receivers (!) and a really good RB in Dontel James. Air Force ranks pretty well statistically but have been hit the last three games for 35,45,34 points (last game 2 OT – Hawaii).

MEGA-MAZEMENT !

Air Force has the big game with Army next week to clinch the Commander-in-Chief trophy….could this be a nasty lookahead spot ??….Air Force conference games are 10-1 to the over L11…..Last season the Falcons clobbered Fresno 42-14 at home as 17-point favs.

Summary

“Never underestimate the power of a change in head coach” – Einstein

On paper, it seems as though the Falcons should roll. However, their defense has not been playing up to potential as of late, and Fresno has the potential to keep it close if Air Force sleepwalks through the early stages.

Conclusion

Official play: None.

Lean: Fresno St at +14 or better for small potatoes.