West Virginia at Oklahoma St – Preview and Prediction
WEST VIRGINIA 3.5 OKLAHOMA ST (64.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – West Virginia -3 Sagarin ratings – West Virginia -2.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: West Virginia 34 Oklahoma St 30.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: West Virginia 31 Oklahoma St 27
The Game
This is going to be a fun one to watch. West Virginia has been flying under the radar with a 6-0 record and quality wins over BYU, Kansas St and TCU. The Cowboys only have one conference loss so far (Baylor) and are looking to keep winning until the big game with the Sooners at the end of the regular season. Both teams are very much alive for a conference title.
The Match-Up
West Virginia offense vs Oklahoma St defense
The Mountaineers have built a really efficient offense. They have the #10 ranked offense in the FBS and are #37 rushing and #20 passing. They can beat you however it is that you want to get beat. QB Skyler Howard is having another fine season and has only thrown 4 INT all season while completing over 66% of his passes. There are all kinds of weapons to choose from in the passing game. RBs Shell and Crawford can take over the game if you forget about the run. Oklahoma St is not a killer when it comes to PENETRATION and West Virginia is very good at limiting negative plays (#2 in Big 12 in sacks allowed per game and TFL allowed per game).
The Cowboys’ defense is going to need to have their best game of the season. They are giving up too many yards on the ground (181/game) and W Virginia runs for over 200/game. Oklahoma St has forced the most turnovers in the Big 12 (16 – 8 INT, 8 fumbles) and will need to force at least two in this contest to pull the upset.
Oklahoma St offense vs West Virginia defense
There is another really good QB in this game. Mason Rudolph is also in the top-20 in the FBS in passing efficiency and sports a fine 14-2 TD to INT ratio. Stop us if you have heard this before, but the Cowboys have a star WR. James Washington had a 1,000-yard season in 2015 and is well on his way to a big season in 2016. He has over 700 yards receiving and averages 20 yards per catch. This will have to be the Mountaineers’ #1 priority on defense. Oklahoma St has not been able to run the ball well enough the past few season and this year they are only getting 144/game on the ground. West Virginia has only allowed 5 rushing TDs all season (best in Big 12).
MEGA MINI BITES
OBSESSIVE TREND GUY is going to get confused after reading this….W Virginia conference games are 17-4 to the under L21…..Oklahoma St conference games are 9-1 to the over L10….We also note that the Cowboys are an amazing 68% (!!) over in their last 93 home games (!). …Last year the Cowboys beat WV in OT on the road.
Summary
This is a tough one to call. Long time MEGALOCKS readers know that we really like Gundy as a HC. They are usually good for at least one upset a season and this just might be the game. The problem we see is that the Mountaineers have the best defense in the Big 12 in our estimation and also boast a much better running attack. Balance on offense and stingy defense. We would want more points to take a shot with the Cowboys.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Lean: None.