Georgia vs Florida – Preview and Prediction
FLORIDA 7.5 GEORGIA (43.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Florida -8 Sagarin ratings – Florida -11.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Florida 25.5 Georgia 18
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Florida 21 Georgia 14
The Game
You know you are getting old when it seems like yesterday that you were allowed to call this game The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party. Of course nowadays, that would be offensive.
Florida dominated last season’s match-up 27-3 in the Faton Bauta debacle. This year they come into the game knowing that a trip to the SEC Title game is there for the taking. Win out – and they are in, despite losing to Tennessee earlier in the season. The Vols have a pretty easy schedule remaining but have two conference losses.
Georgia has had a couple of decent moments, but overall, have been pretty disappointing struggling to a 4-3 mark after seven games. They lost their last game at home to Vanderbilt despite outgaining them 421-171. Our guess is they are really looking forward to hitting someone this week. The bad news ? Florida is going to hit back. Hard.
The Match-Up
Florida offense vs Georgia defense
Florida has only played one game since October 1st. We have a feeling that they may have some new wrinkles for Georgia. The Gators have the better defense and will just need to be balanced and not make a bunch of mistakes. The take a lot of penalties, and have thrown 6 INTs this season, so it might be easier said than done.
The Bulldogs run defense is ranked #4 in the SEC and the Gators have been pretty average running the football against some relatively weak opponents. They will get some yards on the ground, but it feels like QB Luke Del Rio is going to have to do some damage in the passing game if the Gators want to move the ball consistently. Georgia ranks near the bottom of the SEC when it comes to PENETRATION (sacks, TFL) so Florida should be able to have ample opportunity to hit some big plays. That is where Georgia will be vulnerable in this game.
Georgia offense vs Florida defense
The Bulldogs are ranked #8 in the SEC in rushing and #11 in passing efficiency. QB Jacob Eason is still learning on the job and makes the type of mistakes that you would expect from a young player. He is not getting much help from a WR group that lacks a serious deep threat and the ability to consistently “catch” the football. The running game has not been the beast we expected. This seems like a big challenge for Georgia. Having said that, the Bulldogs have also had a bit of time to game plan for Florida and may have some surprises of their own.
Statistically speaking, the Florida defense is great. They are #1 in the FBS in pass efficiency defense (4 TD vs 10 INT) and gave up all four of those bad boys in one game (Tennessee). Their run defense is also solid and the extra time off they have had in October can only be a good thing as they were pretty banged up.
MEGA MORSELS
The Gators have covered 6 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams….in the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party…….WOOPS ! We forgot…..Offensive…..Georgia games have been trending under lately as 11 of their past 14 games overall have gone that way with respect to the total.
Summary
This seems like a tough road for the Bulldogs. However, one thing we will note is that the Gators’ wins have come against UMass, Kentucky, North Texas, Vandy and Missouri. No slight to Florida, but they are a bit unproven so far. Georgia has a nice win over UNC and were a microsecond away from beating Tennessee.
It’s a rivalry game. Beware.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Lean: Florida no higher than -7 for small potatoes should the line get there. The best play may be taking the Georgia TT under any number 17 or better if you are desperate to get involved.