Clemson at Florida St – Preview and Prediction
CLEMSON 4.5 FLORIDA ST (60)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Clemson -4.5 Sagarin ratings – Clemson -5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Clemson 32.25 Florida St 27.75
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Clemson 31 Florida St 27
The Game
Well this game has lost a little bit of the excitement from a national perspective but it is still a yuuuuuuuuuge game between two dominant ACC rivals. As a Canes fan, I can only be jealous. Yes, Clemson is undefeated, but they have not looked as devastating as last season. Florida St has two losses, one was a beating at the hands of Louisville, the other was on a late FG to a good UNC team.
The Match-Up
Clemson offense vs Florida St defense
The numbers are down just a bit from last season but Clemson is doing what it takes to win. They are below last season’s pace for total points, rushing yards, yards per carry and QB efficiency but they are still a handful for any defense to defend. RB Wayne Gallman is listed as probable after taking a big hit in NC State game. The Florida St defense has played pretty well the last two games vs Miami and Wake Forest (25 total points allowed) but this is a much bigger challenge. Their defense is ranked 2nd to last in the ACC in yards per play allowed and are going to need Clemson to continue giving the ball away (16 turnovers – T12th ACC) to give them a shot to win this contest.
Florida St offense vs Clemson defense
Florida St has a really good and balanced offense. They have one of the best RBs in college football in Dalvin Cook and a really good passing game. This week they get a really tough assignment because the Clemson D is ranked #1 in the ACC in yards per play defense and they get a lot of PENETRATION. Meanwhile, Florida St has given up too many negative plays (14th sacks allowed, 11th TFL allowed ACC) and are really going to need to mix things up on offense to keep Clemson off-balance. Outside of the Louisville game, Clemson has given up 13,24,0,7,10,17.
MEGA MIGHTY MENTIONABLES
Clemson has covered 8 of the last 11 games between these two teams…..The Tigers still have a nice cushion in the ACC Atlantic due to their win over Louisville…..Even with a loss in this game they would just need to get past Syracuse, Pitt and Wake Forest to get to the ACC Title Game.
Summary
Some interesting dynamics at play. It is not a “must-win” for Clemson, although nobody is suggesting that they do not want to win this game badly. It is just interesting how these scenarios often play out. Florida St has a shot to keep this one close at home but will need to win the turnover battle (probably likely) and convert on 3rd downs (not as likely).
Conclusion
Official play: None. (YET)
Lean: Florida St +6 if the line creeps up that high (not likely but you never know).