Toledo vs Northern Illinois – Preview and Prediction
TOLEDO 7 N ILLINOIS (69)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Toledo -6 Sagarin ratings – Toledo -10.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Toledo 38 N Illinois 31
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Toledo 38 N Illinois 26
The Game
US Cellular Field hosts a fine MAC West match-up on Wednesday night as the Toledo Rockets face the Northern Illinois Huskies. Toledo has a record of 7-2 and is one game behind W Michigan in the race for the division. Guess what, kids ? If Toledo takes care of business the rest of the way they will face the Broncos for the division title on November 25th. Northern Illinois is in danger of missing bowl season for the first time in what seems like 80 years. They are 3-6 and need to win out to reach the magical 6-win plateau. Northern Illinois has played a lot better since the DEBACLE in DeKalb when they lost to Western Illinois.
The Match-Up
Toledo offense vs N Illinois defense
Not much to say. This offense is deadly and well balanced. QB Logan Woodside continues to roll right along with 34 TD passes vs 5 INT (!) and 71% completions. Even more impressive is the fact that he averages over 10 YARDS per attempt. This is not an option team that throws just once in a while and hits bombs. The Rockets also boast a devastating running attack led by RB Kareem Hunt who should crack the 1,000 yard barrier in this game. When the Huskies cheat up to stop the run, the Rockets have a lot of big play WR including Cody Thompson who is averaging over 20 yards per reception.
The Huskies are going to have to find a way to generate some turnovers which will not be easy. Toledo is also #3 in the FBS in 3rd down conversions so it seems unlikely that the #109 ranked defense will be able to stop Toledo too many times without the help of a recovered fumble or interception here or there. The Huskies have only allowed 27 total points the past two games but the Rockets are a different animal than Buffalo or Bowling Green. Prognosis: Points.
N Illinois offense vs Toledo defense
The Huskies offense is starting to roll with QB Anthony Maddie at the controls. They have scored 31,30,28,44,45 the past five games and Maddie is a tough QB to defend due to his ability to run the football and MATRICULATE in the passing game. When you add RB Joel Bouagnon to the running game mix and consider the deep WR unit the Huskies possess, it is not impossible to think that Toledo could be stuck in a close game (probably a shootout) if they control Maddie. We expect a big play or two from WR Kenny Golladay who is approaching 1,000 yards (888). One interesting factoid to keep in mind is that the Toledo defense is actually ranked worse than NIU (#9 vs #8) in yards per play defense in the MAC. However, the Rockets are ranked #2 (!!) in the FBS in 3rd down defense. Prognosis: Enough points to keep things interesting.
MEGA MACtion MORSELS
NIU has won 6 straight in the series including last season’s upset win at Toledo…..NIU has covered four of the last 5 games after starting the season like a train wreck….Toledo has only come up with 5 INT this season…..Don’t forget when handicapping this game it is at US Cellular Field in Chicago.
Summary
We have the fair line quite a bit lower than most well-respected power rating methodologies. We weight recent performance more than season-long averages and feel that while the Huskies may get blown out, it is more reasonable to think that their improved recent play can result in a competitive game, even with the rise in class on Wednesday night. Of course, fading Logan Woodside and the Rockets is not a great way to go most of the time. Tough one to call.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Lean: NIU at +7 or better. Total seems about right to us. Implied score of 38-31.