Utah at Arizona St – Preview and Prediction
UTAH 5.5 ARIZONA ST (59.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Utah -7 Sagarin ratings – Utah -3
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Utah 32.5 Arizona St 27
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Utah 31 Arizona St 28
The Game
This is a really underrated PAC 12 match-up as Utah visits Arizona St for a Thursday night showdown. Arizona St has lost three games in a row but got their bye week at the right time. They will be a lot healthier for this game. The Sun Devils need one more win for bowl eligibility but have a pretty tough schedule left in front of them (Utah, Washington, Arizona – rivalry game). Utah is sitting at 7-2 and are just one game behind the Buffs in the PAC 12 South race. The way things stand right now, If Utah wins the next two games, it sets up a showdown with Colorado for the division title.
The Match-Up
Utah offense vs Arizona St defense
World. Meet RB Joe Williams. It is truly remarkable story as Williams came out of self-imposed retirement three weeks ago and has been an absolute beast. 685 yards rushing in three games. Utah plowed over a really good UCLA defense for 360 yards rushing on the road two weeks ago and ran for over 200 yards (!) against the JUGGERNAUT Washington Huskies last week. Statistically, Arizona St is ranked very well vs the run (#1 rush defense PAC 12, #2 yards per carry allowed) but Colorado had no problems abusing them with the running game (315 yards). Granted, that game was on the road. Arizona St has the #126 (!!) ranked pass efficiency defense and have given up 26 TD passes vs 7 INT. We feel that based on the teams they have faced (Texas Tech, Cal, Wash St) that they are not as bad defending the pass as the stats indicate. However, we also feel that their run defense is not the brick wall you would think based on numbers. QB Troy Williams is not a star but can find the right guy against weak pass defenses. Arizona St has allowed 41,41,20,40,37,54 the last six games. Prognosis: Solid running attack and timely MATRICULATION in the passing game.
Arizona St offense vs Utah defense
MEGALOCKS PAC 12 INSIDERS have alerted us that QB Manny Wilkins appears to be good to go for this contest. Wilkins is the #1 option at QB but has been dinged up this season with a couple of nagging injuries. True freshman Dillon Sterling-Cole will get more action should Wilkins need to leave the game. The Sun Devils are ranked #10 in the PAC 12 in rushing offense, and even with a healthy Wilkins, it is going to be tough sledding vs a strong Utah defense. Wilkins has struggled in the passing game throwing 6 TDs vs 5 INT. Top WR (and ace return man) Tim White is nursing a sore ankle and will be a game-time decision. Overall, we do not like this match-up for the Sun Devils, particularly if they have limited success running the football.
MEGA MUNCHIES
Last season Utah ended an 11-game losing streak to the Sun Devils with a 34-18 win at home…..Arizona St has covered EIGHT straight home games….Utah is 11-5 ATS L16 road games….something has to give…..TOTALS PLAYERS TAKE NOTE….this may mean no more than a hill of beans BUT….the last 5 totals in this series have been 52,35,39,44,49….Total for this week is 59….not saying just saying.
Summary
Arizona St is a cover machine at home. And there is a BLACK OUT. Might as well not even play the game.
We have to take the better defense and better running game. And better special teams. And the better head coach. We also like the fact that Whittingham is 17-5 SU off a bye week and you do not need much extra time to find holes in the Arizona St defense. Utah is tougher than a $3 steak. Gotta roll with them laying less than a TD, although we will acknowledge, they really like to be involved in close games.
The market may not agree with us on this one, but we have to take a shot.
Conclusion
Official play: Utah -5.5 -104 (play no higher than -6.5)
Lean: As crazy as it sounds, under 58 or better for small potatoes.