Kentucky at Tennessee – Preview and Prediction
TENNESSEE 13 KENTUCKY (60)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Tennessee -11 Sagarin ratings – Tennessee -15.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Tennessee 36.5 Kentucky 23.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Tennessee 41 Kentucky 27
The Game
The Wildcats are coming off a really tough loss to the Bulldogs. They had a legitimate chance to come out of nowhere to win the SEC East, and while they are technically still alive, they are essentially playing for a bowl spot at this point. Credit should be given to the Wildcats as they could have packed it in after a bit of a rough start. They sit at 5-4 and have Austin Peay left on the schedule which should get them to six wins regardless of what happens against Tennessee or Louisville.
What a season so far for the Vols. They went from team of destiny to team in turmoil in a matter of weeks. Leading RB Jalen Hurd quit the team. Head coach is on the hot seat (again). There is still a ton of talent on this team and they still have a shot to finish strong with three winnable games in the regular season. A bowl win would give them 10 victories. Of course, first things first. But this season is not a lost cause. Yet.
The Match-Up
Tennessee offense vs Kentucky defense
It is not always pretty, but QB Joshua Dobbs always seems to be able to generate points, unless he is up against an elite defense. Kentucky is improving, but they have given up 200+ yards rushing on five different occasions and allowed 245+ yards passing in five different games. Overall, they are 12th in the SEC in run defense and 13th in pass efficiency defense. A Kamara is back and RB and he should be able to combine with Dobbs and other RBs for a big day on the ground. The passing attack should work, but as you know, the Vols are very streaky. We expect points but probably in bunches at some point. There will also be some maddening 3 and outs.
Kentucky offense vs Tennessee defense
This is the most interesting aspect of the game. Can the really solid and underrated Wildcat ground attack move the ball on Tennessee ? Kentucky is 5th in the SEC in rushing and have put up 258,262,377,186 yards on the ground in the past four games. Tennessee has been blown to pieces by a couple of ground attacks (353,438 – Tex AM, Bama) and been suspect in a few other games. We think Kentucky will be able to move the ball better than you might expect. Tennessee has not faced many decent passing attack and are still only raned 9th in the SEC in pass efficiency defense. Kentucky turns the ball over a LOT – even more than the Vols – and are dead last in the SEC in turnover margin (-10). They will probably leave some points on the board but should be able to have a good offensive game.
MEGA MINUTIA
Tennessee has won the last two meetings by scores of 52-21 and 50-16….The Wildcats are just 9-22 ATS in their last 31 away games……Amaze your UPS delivery guy with this factoid….Tennessee has allowed more yards AND more first downs than they have gained on the season….They are also a cumulative (-60) ATS vs the number in eight games vs FBS opponents.
Summary
This is just too many points. The problem is the way that Kentucky has played over the past few seasons on the road. Yes, they beat Missouri this season, but let’s not get all crazy. They often get destroyed away from home and who knows how they react after that last second home loss to Georgia. Oh, and their defense is not very good. To be fair, it is also hard to know how the Vols will come out for this one. They lost to an improving S Carolina team two games ago (were -3 in turnovers) and blew out FBS foe Tenn Tech last week.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Lean: Kentucky at +13 or better. Probably will not make the official list but may reconsider if the line gets to 14+.