USC at Washington – Preview and Prediction
WASHINGTON 8.5 USC (62.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Washington -8 Sagarin ratings – Washington -11.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Washington 36.5 USC 28
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Washington 35 USC 24
The Game
Whoa Nellie ! This should be a great Saturday battle as the surging USC Trojans visit the undefeated Washington Huskies. USC is really rolling right now and are still in the mix for the PAC 12 South title. The Huskies are tied atop the PAC 12 North standings with rival Washington St, but to be honest, they know that bigger things are possible if they keep winning. Let’s roll !
The Match-Up
Washington offense vs USC defense
What a season for QB Jake Browning. There is still some work to be done, but right now, nobody is doing a better job at quarterback. 34 TD passes vs 3 INTs. The Huskies are #1 in passing efficiency and also boast a devastating ground attack led by Myles Gaskin. Lavon Coleman is still averaging 9 yards per carry (!) and we are well into November. Washington has scored 31+ points in every game this season. USC is playing pretty good defense right now (20,17,14,24,20 allowed L5G) and are going to be a stern test for the Huskies. We worry about the Trojans’ ability to get PENETRATION as they are ranked 9th in the PAC 12 in sacks per game and mid-pack in TFL/game. Washington does a fine job of keeping the QB clean and avoiding negative plays.
USC offense vs Washington defense
Wow. Sam Darnold has played exceptionally well for the Trojans at QB since replacing Max Browne. Darnold has thrown 20 TDs vs 4 INT and has some mobility to give defense a lot to think about in their preparation. The Trojans have achieved really good balance on offense (#35 FBS rushing, #34 passing) and will provide a big challenge for the Huskies. RoJo 2.0 had 4 TD rushing last week vs Oregon and looks like he may have turned the corner after a slow start to the season.
Washington has a really good defense and get a lot of PENETRATION but USC is ALSO very good at keeping their QB clean as they are ranked NUMERO UNO (#1) in the PAC 12 in sacks allowed per game and TFL/game. Washington is #1 in turnover margin in the FBS and will look to make a couple of game turning interceptions or fumble recoveries. Based on how loose USC can be with the football (Colorado DEBACLE) there is no doubt that they will have to clean that up to be competitive in this contest.
MEGA BITS
COMMON OPPONENTS GUY will note that USC lost a close game at Utah (should have won ?) whilst the Huskies won by 7 points at Utah in a pretty evenly matched contest…..Last year the Huskies beat USC on the road 17-12….Quite a bit has changed since then….Washington has turned into a JUGGERNAUT with a great QB and USC appears to have found a promising QB of their own…..Washington is 11-1 to the over in their last 12 games…..The under is 6-1-1 L8 in the series….USC is just 8-21 ATS L29 in road games.
Summary
Washington has won their five home games by a combined score of 233-53. None of those teams have the talent level of USC. The Trojans have won their last three contests by a combined score of 138-58. In a similar fashion, none of those squads are comparable to Washington. The important thing to note is that both teams will be very confident on Saturday. And these just might be the two best teams in the PAC 12.
We are not sure if USC is ready to win a big road game like this one. The points are pretty generous in our view. The better idea may be to look at the under as both defenses are pretty solid.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Lean: Under 62 or better.