New Mexico at Utah St – Preview and Prediction
UTAH ST 2.5 NEW MEXICO (62.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – New Mexico -3 Sagarin ratings – Utah St -2.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Utah St 32.5 New Mexico 30
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Utah St 34 New Mexico 31
The Game
Everyone on board the Lobo Express ! New Mexico is sitting at 6-3 and have won four straight games. They are still in the hunt to win the division and a trip to the conference title game, but first things first. Utah St has struggled mightily this season, and with a record of 3-6, they need to win out to reach bowl eligibility. Given that there is a road date with BYU, optimism cannot be running high at this point.
The Match-Up
Utah St offense vs New Mexico defense
QB Kent Myers is taking some heat this season, but he has played through injuries and done a decent job overall leading the offense. Damion Hobbs got some work last week and will probably get in the game again this weekend to give the Lobos an additional QB to worry about. The injury to home run RB Devante Mays has slowed down the offense big time in the second half of the season. They are missing a home run threat in the run game and are not built to be throwing the football all over the yard.
New Mexico is playing some fine defense. That is what we like about this team. Last season they made nice strides allowing only 28 points per game and this season they have been particularly strong against the run (#4 rush defense MW, #3 yards per carry allowed). The secondary can get lit up, and strangely enough, that may be the best shot that Utah St has to win this game.
New Mexico offense vs Utah St defense
The Lobos are fine tuned machine right now. They are #1 in the FBS in rushing yards per game and have ran for 300+ on six different occasions. They have two very capable QBs running the offense. Last week L Jordan turned it over a couple of times in the red zone (but was playing really well other than that) and A Apodaca came in and looked very good as well. RBs Owens and Gipson are TDs waiting to happen (7.9, 9.6 YPC). Cheat up to stop the run ? Boom. Over the top once or twice a game for big plays.
The Utah St defense regressed by almost a TD last season and this year they are struggling again. Of course, we mean by their pretty high standards. Last week they got steamrolled by the Wyoming ground attack for 267 yards and the game before that San Diego St punished them for 400 yards rushing. Uh oh.
MEGA-MAZING MORSELS
TOTALS GUY has to be excited about this one…..New Mexico is 10-1 to the over in their past 11 games….Utah St is 13-3 to the over in their past 16 games……Hard to believe that the New Mexico defense is significantly better at stopping the run (#39) vs Utah St (#85) yet those are the facts.
Summary
Two teams headed in different directions. New Mexico should be able to run their offense pretty much at will. They will just need to control the Utah St passing game. Crazy, huh ?
Conclusion
Official play: New Mexico +2.5 -106 (Would play to New Mexico -2.5)