Florida at LSU – Preview and Prediction
LSU 13.5 FLORIDA (37.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – LSU -11 Sagarin ratings – LSU -11
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: LSU 25.5 Florida 12
Massey Ratings Projected Score: LSU 17 Florida 6
The Game
There is a saying that goes something like…”We don’t often bet against LSU, but when we do, we lose.” The Tigers had every reason to have a bit of a down effort last week after the ROLL TIDE slugfest, but they played a fantastic game, and beat up Arkansas on the road. They are sitting at 6-3 and are sure to get a nice bowl invite if they can win their last two regular season games. They were hoping for better, but have to be pleased with the way they have turned the season around. Florida still controls their own destiny. Win this week – and they are in the SEC Title game. Lose – and they need some help (Vols to lose a game). They are struggling on offense and are certainly not playing great football right now BUT they have been absolutely blown up by injuries. Every team has them, but the Gators have had much more than their fair share.
The Match-Up
LSU offense vs Florida defense
The Tigers’ ground attack is really rolling. Guice and Fournette have over 1,600 combined yards rushing and 17 TDs. The Gators run defense is strong but they did give up 223 yards to the Razorbacks two weeks ago on the road. QB Danny Etling will just have to play a smart game and let the defense and running backs win the game. The Gators have only allowed 6 TD passes all season. It feels like the Gators are going to have a hard time holding up for four quarters.
Florida offense vs LSU defense
Total offense the last 3 games ? 231,241,372. Given that LSU also has an excellent defense, the Gators are going to struggle to cobble together enough points to win. The good news is that their defense IS good enough to win the game if the offense can contribute for a couple of TDs. Not impossible. The OL is banged up and does not figure to get much of a ground game going. But they have to keep at it. Jordan Scarlett had 134 yards on the ground last week vs S Carolina and the Gators have to hope he can have his best game of the season. Eventually, they will have to hit a big play or two in the passing game if they want to leave Death Valley with a win. Antonio Callaway is their best option. LSU knows that. Florida has only given up 13 sacks all season. Can they hold up a couple of times to hit those big plays ?
MEGA MORSELS
Yes kids, it is the FORMER PURDUE QBs PLAYING IN A RESCHEDULED SEC GAME OF THE WEEK….Danny Etling and Austin Appleby go head to head…..The under is 8-3 L11 Florida road games….LSU home games are on a 6-0-2 run to the under.
Summary
Florida is going to give LSU their best shot. Will it be enough to win ? To cover ? Any team with a great defense, even with a lot of injuries, is dangerous if the other team makes a lot of unforced errors. Hard to see it happening but you never know.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Lean: Total is really low but it feels like the move here. Under 37 or better for small potatoes.