Louisville at Houston – Preview and Prediction
LOUISVILLE 14 HOUSTON (68)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Louisville -13.5 Sagarin ratings – Lousiville -12.75
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Louisville 41 Houston 27
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Louisville 40 Houston 31
The Game
The overall level of excitement surrounding this game has certainly taken a turn for the worse given the recent play of the Cougars. Yes, they are sitting at 8-2, but would need a miracle to even win their AAC division (Navy would have to lose twice for starters). They do not look like the same teams that rolled through September. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are hoping that two impressive wins over the Cougars and the Kentucky Wildcats can get them into the playoff, even though they will not be able to claim a divisional crown (unless Clemson loses to Wake…). A little bit of a mixed bag of intangibles BUT we have two fantastic QBs going at it. Let’s roll !
The Match-Up
Louisville offense vs Houston defense
By now, we do not need to tell you much about Lamar Jackson. 27 TD passes and over 1,300 yards rushing with another 19 TDs. There are only a handful of defenses that can control his running ability, and if you try too hard to do that, he can MATRICULATE down the field to an explosive set of WRs. RB Brandon Radcliff has been very under-the-radar but is averaging over 7 yards per carry. The Cougars’ defense is ranked #9 overall (!) in the FBS and #3 against the run, but they have definitely not looked as strong in the second half of the season. Louisville is susceptible to giving up sacks (2.5 per game / #92 FBS) and Houston has a shot to make some big plays with PENETRATION. However, it is easier said than done when talking about L Jackson. It is not unthinkable that the Cougars can give the Cardinals some trouble. Wake held Louisville to 10 points through three quarters last week. Houston must play up to their potential on defense to make this a competitive game.
Houston offense vs Louisville defense
The offense has really hit the wall. The Cougars have only managed 303,398,287 yards of offense the past three games and that was against SMU, UCF and Tulane (!). Most concerning to us is the fact that the Houston ground game is not working well at all, and as we stand right now, their leading rusher is QB Greg Ward with only 429 yards. RB Duke Catalon has missed some time, but Houston only managed 66 net yards rushing last week. They will make some magic happen in the passing game because Ward is very good, and he has a fine group of WRs, but Louisville has a rock solid defense (#6 overall – #6 vs run, #29 pass efficiency D). Houston ranks poorly in turnover margin (#100 FBS) and we worry about their ability to win the turnover battle. We would feel a lot better if the offense was clicking like it was earlier in the season.
MEGA MORSELS
Last season Houston went on the road and beat Louisville 34-31……Lamar Jackson and Kyle Bolin shared QB duties that day…..Houston home games are 8-3 to the under L11….Louisville games are 11-4 to the over L15….Trend Guy is puzzled…..Louisville may win this one but lurking in the weeds are the wacky Kentucky Wildcats who could give the Cards more of a battle than we think….not saying just saying.
Summary
We have had this game circled in the calendar for a while. Both out of interest, and from a point spread perspective. Houston catching 2 TD at home is really appealing BUT the reality is that the offense has been sputtering, and as much as we like Greg Ward at QB, they are probably going to be too one-dimensional to stay close for 60 minutes. Then again, it’s not like Louisville has been playing tough teams lately, and they had a recent scare vs Virginia, and a sluggish three quarters vs Wake before the Deacons started point shaving.
Conclusion
Official play: None
Lean: We are probably not getting involved, but feel that Houston +7.5 or +8 first half would be a decent play. You have to think they will come out with their hair on fire and Louisville is not the best team ever assembled despite what you may have heard. Worried about the ability of the Cougars to hang for 60 minutes without help in the turnover battle.