USC at UCLA – Preview and Prediction
USC 12.5 UCLA (52.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – USC -9.5 Sagarin ratings – USC -7.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: USC 32.5 UCLA 20
Massey Ratings Projected Score: USC 28 UCLA 21
The Game
The leaders in the PAC 12 South just keep on winning ! Colorado has won 4 straight. USC has won 6 in a row. Utah just beat Arizona St. In particular, the Trojans have been RED HOT and are probably one of the top 5 teams in the FBS based on the way they are playing. Making the PAC 12 Title Game is a bit of a longshot based on how the tiebreakers will likely work out. However, USC can still make a REALLY good bowl game by finishing up with wins over UCLA and Notre Dame.
UCLA has been a yuuuuuuge disappointment this season. They did not look that great even before the ROSEN ONE got hurt at QB. The Bruins have to beat USC and California to close out the regular season campaign at 6-6 and achieve bowl eligibility.
The Match-Up
USC offense vs UCLA defense
Balance. It is so important. And with QB Sam Darnold at the controls, the Trojans offense has been clicking on all cylinders. They have scored 48,45,45,26 their last four games and are now ranked 3rd in the PAC 12 in yards per play offense. They do equally well running or throwing the football. They are going to be in for a challenge on Saturday. The one thing that has held up for the Bruins has been their defense. They have only given up more than 27 points twice all season (OT – Tex AM, Utah debacle). They are 3rd in the PAC 12 in yards per play defense (4.77 !) and have played some pretty good offensive squads. USC is going to have to be sharp and avoid turnovers or this one may not be the gimme that it seems on paper.
UCLA offense vs USC defense
This is the problem for UCLA. They have no running game to speak of and rank DEAD LAST in the PAC 12 in rushing offense (87 yards per game). The USC D is also very good so you can pretty much eliminate the running game from the list of things to worry about. Now, can QB Mike Fafaul do enough damage in the passing game to give them a shot ? He has shown the ability to MATRICULATE and move the ball BUT he also has 10 INT vs only 9 TD. The Trojans have given up 20,17,14,24,20,13 in their past six games. It seems like a tall order to expect the Bruins to move the ball consistently.
MEGA-MAZING MINI BITES
The under in 8-1-1 L10 in the series…..The Trojans won the game last year 40-21 and that broke a 3-game winning streak for UCLA…..MEGALOCKS MADE UP RUMORS INSIDERS tell us that Les Miles is a popular choice among some fans to take over the reins next season at UCLA.
Summary
Boy. Another game that under normal circumstances would have grabbed our attention. Big rivalry game and a ton of points dangling for all to see. USC is just playing too well right now to fade them but the spread is getting close to 2 TDs. The defense is going to have to win this one for the Bruins. It is pretty hard to beat a team playing as well as USC with a one-dimensional offense.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Lean: UCLA TT under 20 or better. If the spread hits 14 it would not be insane to take UCLA for small potatoes.