New Mexico at Colorado St – Preview and Prediction
COLORADO ST 4.5 NEW MEXICO (61.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Colorado St -7 Sagarin ratings – Colorado St -5.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Colorado St 33 New Mexico 28.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Colorado St 34 New Mexico 28
The Game
This should be another fun Mountain West showdown. Colorado St has a record of 5-5, and with a road date against San Diego St on the horizon, even ESPN might be right in calling this a “must-win” game with regards to bowl eligibility. Meanwhile, New Mexico has won 5 straight and are still in the hunt for a trip to the Mountain West Title Game. They need Boise St to lose, but that is not impossible (Air Force last week).
The Match-Up
Colorado St offense vs New Mexico defense
Rams’ QB Nick Stevens is playing his best football of the season right now. Stevens is on a 8 TD 1 INT streak and is coming off a 300+ game vs Air Force. MEGALOCKS COLORADO ST DEEP INSIDERS tell us that last week’s game vs the Falcons was the first time in Rams’ history that they had a 300 yard passer, 100-yard rusher and 200- receiver in the same game. The RB combo is Dawkins and Matthews is very good and they have almost 1,100 combined rushing yards. WR Michael Gallup is coming off a yuuuuuge game and should top 1,000 in this contest (915). The Lobos have been decent against the run but they can be absolutely shredded vs the pass. Even Kent Myers (!) went nuts last week vs the Lobos going 21-27. We see the Rams scoring 30+ in this game without a problem.
New Mexico offense vs Colorado St defense
We love the Lobos. MEGALOCKS NATION knows that. They are a fun team to watch and Bob Davie has done a wonderful job. The running game will eventually feature TWO 1,000-yard backs (Owens-927, Gipson-924) and they also have a unique two-QB system that actually works. It looks as though the gritty Apodoca will start this game and he does an overall better job making decisions as well as MATRICULATING in the passing game when needed. Colorado St just got run over in a close loss vs Air Force BIG TIME on the ground. Their tackling is going to need to be a whole lot better this week. The Lobo offense is a bit different, but nonetheless, Colorado St better bring their tackling shoes.
MEGA MORSELS
Colorado St won 58-20 the last time they hosted the Lobos in 2014….The home team is 5-2-1 ATS L8 in the series…..Colorado St has done well recently in the role of home favorite with a 14-5 ATS mark the last 19 times they were in that position……Overall, the Rams have won 6 straight vs New Mexico.
Summary
We have some pretty interesting intangibles at play. Colorado St is playing their FINAL game in Hughes Stadium, and while that may not seem like a huge deal to the casual fan, there has been some pretty exciting football played in that venue. Whether it ends up meaning anything at all, the fact is that this team does not want to go down in history as the team that lost the final game in that stadium. At a minimum, we should expect a good focused effort. We also know that this is as close to a must-win as there can be with two games left in the season and bowl eligibility hanging in the balance. Yes, New Mexico is still in the hunt in the division, but they have already exceeded expectations for the season and can still bag a nine-win season regardless of Saturday’s game. Colorado St also has shown the proven ability to beat these guys (6 straight). A final note, New Mexico has played one of the easiest schedules (#131 per Sagarin ratings – includes FCS teams) while Colorado St ranks (#85).
We also like the Xs and Os. Colorado St is two dimensional and the Lobos really struggle against the pass. The Lobos have an excellent ground attack we expect the Rams to force more punts than the other way around.
Conclusion
Official play: Colorado St -4.5 (play up to -6)….There are a couple of -4 out there…..We will use -4.5 for official purposes.