NCAA Football Analysis Week 13 – Quick Takes
QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for detailed analysis this week…..
NCAA Football Predictions and Analysis
Miami Ohio -7.5 Ball St (53.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Miami Ohio -7
Vegas Implied Score – Miami Ohio 30.5 Ball St 2
We love ourselves some Miami Ohio. Not only did they deliver as a ROCK solid MEGALOCKS 24375923475938475 STAR winner against Central Michigan, but ANY reasonable man, woman or other must respect the fact that the Redhawks have peeled off 5 straight wins after starting 0-6. They have won five straight and just need to beat the Ball St Cardinals at home to get to 6-6 and reach bowl eligilbilty. They could EVEN make the MAC Title game ! (a win and an Ohio loss) What could possibly go wrong ?
First off. It’s MACtion.
Secondly. Remember what Billy the Kid said in Young Guns. “There is many a slip between a cup and a lip.”
Miami Ohio is playing really well. But the pressure is all on them. Ball St has 7 losses and is now ineligible for bowl season. THIS is their bowl game. They have won four straight games OUTRIGHT in Oxford, Ohio. We have the fair line pretty close to the point spread, but at the end of the day, who really knows what is going to happen when Ball St meets Miami Ohio ?
Joking aside, Miami is playing really solid football – AND – we have no dog in the fight. We are just SUCKERS for human interest stories and hope they can finish it out. QB Gus Ragland has been great (12 TD 0 INT) and the defense has been really good.
Quick Take: This game looks perfectly lined to us. No action.
Ohio OFF Akron (OFF)………..MEGALOCKS line – OFF
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio XX Akron XX
Akron has both QBs listed on the injury report as questionable. Not a great time for that if you trying to get that 6th win for bowl eligibility. Ohio needs to win to guarantee themselves a spot in the MAC Title game. They looked home and cooled out until they lost to the Chips last week.
Too much uncertainty as we go to press.
Quick Take: Not a playable game based on the unknown situation at QB for Akron. #1 and #2 may not be able to play. #3 is a freshman who will not play. #4 is the dude from the Dr Pepper commercials. Ice Cold Dr Pepper HERE.
Bowling Green 13.5 Buffalo (58.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Bowling Green -13
Vegas Implied Score – Bowling Green 36 Buffalo 22.5
Classic MACtion. The Falcons and Bulls have a combined record of 5-17 this season but that does not dampen our enthusiasm one bit to see the spectacle unfold on Friday.
The Sagarin ratings have Buffalo ranked at #176 just behind FCS powerhouses Mercer and Kennesaw St. Truth be told however, the Bulls had outgained three straight opponents (Akron, Ohio, Miami Ohio) before the blowout loss at W Michigan last week. They may go with senior G Rohach at QB given the injury to T Jackson. He is more reliable, but not anyone that is going to scare the Falcons. The Bulls best chance is to use RB Jordan Johnson a LOT in this one as they face the worst defense in the MAC in terms of yards per play allowed. TE Mason Schreck needs to have a big day at TE because the Bulls do not have a scary group of WRs. If the Bulls have the proper game plan and execute mildly well they have a shot at keeping this one competitive.
Bowling Green has scored 80 points the last two weeks and have played a lot better since they discovered that they have a good OL and RB unit ! Last week they rushed for over 400 yards against Kent St and three different players had over 100 yards. Buffalo is ranked last in the MAC in run defense. Uh oh. QB James Morgan loves to throw interceptions but the Bulls only have 5 all season.
Quick Take: The match-up of the Falcons running game vs the Bulls run defense is too juicy to ignore. However, you can never trust coaches in the MAC to do what makes sense all of the time. Maybe the Falcons come out throwing and fall behind by 2 TDs ? We still lean Bowling Green at any number -14 or better for small potatoes based on the Falcons’ improved play and the lack of playmakers on the Bulls.
Maryland 13.5 Rutgers (51.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Maryland -11.5
Vegas Implied Score – Maryland 32.5 Rutgers 19
Rutgers has really made some history this season. In their four games against Ohio St, Michigan, Michigan St and Penn St they were outscored by an EYE POPPING 224-0. Now we all know that Maryland is not in the same area code as those teams, but it seems to us that the play has to be on the Terps or nothing. Rutgers has shown some life at times (lost by 2 to Minnesota, by 6 to Indiana, by 7 to Iowa) but it really hard to expect a team to cover 14 when they have not scored a point since November 5th. Then again, Maryland has not exactly been tearing the cover off the ball lately as they have only scored 13 (!) points themselves in the past three games.
Quick Take: Seek help if you need action on this game.
Baylor 5 Texas Tech (85)………..MEGALOCKS line – Baylor -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – Baylor 45 Texas Tech 40
It really does not get much tougher for us. A Big 12 game. Essentially meaningless. Total in the mid 80s. Baylor has lost four games in a row and are down to their back-up QB, not to mention the other distractions surrounding the program. And, the game is being played at a neutral site (Arlington). Oh, and did we mention there are rumors that SMU coach Chad Morris may or may not (??) become the next Bears’ HC ?? Good grief.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, Texas Tech needed a win to stay bowl eligible last week vs Iowa St, and they did what any reasonable team would do – they lost 66-10 vs Iowa St. Wut ? The Red Raiders have given up 45,45,66 the last three games and are not to be trusted right now in our opinion.
Quick Take: Baylor at -6 or better for small potatoes. Just a feeling that Texas Tech may have quit.
N ILLINOIS 5 KENT ST (46)………..MEGALOCKS line – N Illinois -7
Vegas Implied Score – N Illinois 25.5 Kent St 20.5
Yup. Your starting QBs are Daniel Santaceterina (NIU – first start) and George Bollas (was 5th string then starter then 4th string now starter). Kent St supposedly has a good defense but were shredded to pieces by the BOWLING GREEN (?) running game for over 400 yards last week. Neither team has anything to play for other than pride. NIU has a lot more talent on paper, but no MACtion game has ever been won on paper. Kent St has absolutely nothing on offense. The Huskies defense is bad and they have a new QB. Yuck.
Quick Take: Wow. Hard to not be excited about a MACtion game but this one might be the game we do not wanna watch. Nah. We will watch. Kent St is unplayable. We still lean NIU at any number less than -7.
KANSAS ST 27 KANSAS (54)………..MEGALOCKS line – Kansas St -27
Vegas Implied Score – Kansas St 40.5 Kansas 13.5
We love NARRATIVE STREET GUY. Not as much as CROWD WILL BE ROCKING GUY. But it’s close. Yes, Bill Snyder owns Kansas. Bill Snyder could beat 100 giant DITKAs with both hands tied behind his back. Bill Snyder’s cat could beat Kansas by 109 points.
We have the fair line pretty much right where it is now. Kansas is getting some unanticipated line respect after they beat Texas last week. Actually, the week before that they almost beat an Iowa St team that put up 60+ on Texas Tech. We were thinking of playing Kansas a couple of weeks ago assuming the line would be in the 30s but we cannot do it now. Sadly, it is actually a pretty fair line for NARRATIVE STREET GUY. That makes us sad, but that’s life.
The reality is that Kansas St has only lost to Stanford, W Virginia, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. And Kansas just won one of their biggest games in recorded history. It’s odd that the intangibles favor the yuuuuuge favorite but we believe that is the case.
Quick Take: Kansas St at -27.5 or better for small potatoes only. You know we hate to do it but have no choice.
STANFORD 36 RICE (54)………..MEGALOCKS line – Stanford -31
Vegas Implied Score – Stanford 45 Rice 9
It is a timeless classic. The season-ending Stanford vs Rice game. We are not sure what scheduling wizards came up with this one – but hey – it’s college football. We will take it.
After scoring a paltry 6,16,17,5 in four straight games, Stanford has managed to put up 34,52,45 the last three games. They have not played the greatest of defenses in those contests – but guess what – they get Rice this week. C McCaffrey ran for 280+ last week vs Cal and we are pretty certain he will get in the 200s once again.
Rice can take some consolation in the fact that Stanford has given up 56 points in the past two games combined and on two other occasions gave up 40+. Rice QB Tyler Stehling – the RED ROCKET – is out for the season – but Jackson Tyner looked pretty good last week vs UTEP. Yes, UTEP. Stanford is a big step up in class but Rice has won two games in a row and seem to be clicking on offense.
Quick Take: Over 55 or better for small potatoes.
TULSA 22.5 CINCY (62.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Tulsa -21
Vegas Implied Score – Tulsa 42.5 Cincinnati 20
Hard game to get involved….Spread has been 21+ since Monday and no chance for the Cincy FADE TRAIN to get on board without laying some serious lumber…..Have the Bearcats quit ? Possibly. Put it this way, they have only scored 26 total points in their last 4 (!) games….The Bearcats had scored 30+ per game 6 of the previous 7 campaigns…We are not sure who is even gonna suit up at this point given injuries….but they are going to have to find a way to score some points to cover in this one….Tulsa has a very suspect defense but they are an absolute handful on offense (#9 FBS)….Tulsa has scored 50,59,45,40,35 the last 5 games. Feels like a roll-over a die game but who knows ? Peeps closer to the Bearcats’ program may have a better read.
Quick Take: Gonna take a pass for now on this one.
VIRGINIA TECH (18.5) VIRGINIA (54.5)………MEGALOCKS line – Virginia Tech -17
Vegas Implied Score – Virginia Tech 36.5 Virginia 18
Win and they are in. Simple. If the Hokies can beat the Cavaliers at home this weekend they are off to the ACC Title Game. They have had their ups and downs this season but we think they can represent the Coastal Division very well in the big game. Virginia is sitting at 2-9 and have lost 6 games in a row. They will definitely be JACKED UP to ruin the Hokies season but do not think they have the minerals to pull the upset. Cover ? That is another story. We absolutely think they can stay close just due to the fact that the Hokies have not been able to put a full game together in over a month.
Quick Take: Lean Virginia for small potatoes. Wait as long as you can to get as many points as you can. 20 would be nice.
IOWA 2.5 NEBRASKA (41.5) ………MEGALOCKS line – Iowa -3
Vegas Implied Score – Iowa 22 Nebraska 19.5
This has the potential to be a SNOT BUBBLER street fight….Nebraska needs to win to stay in the hunt for the Big 10 Title Game (need Wisconsin to lose on Saturday) and the IRON tough Tommy Armstrong looks like he will get the start at QB…..When you have TA at QB (even if injured) and a solid RB in T Newby + a really good defense…..you can win pretty much anywhere….Ok, maybe not at Ohio St this season…..but the Huskers are a TOUGH out…..Iowa has started to put it together with much better run defense AND FINALLY a much more reliable rushing attack…..The most interesting match-up of the game will be the Wadley/Daniels RB duo against the Huskers’ run defense that is really good…..Neither team will be making many big plays in the passing game.
Quick Take: Lean to the under for small potatoes. Any number 40.5 or better.