LSU at Texas A&M – Preview and Prediction
LSU 5.5 TEXAS A&M (45.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – LSU -3.5 Sagarin ratings – LSU -1
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: LSU 25.5 Texas A&M 20
Massey Ratings Projected Score: LSU 17 Texas A&M 14
The Game
Definitely a tough game to handicap. LSU is sitting at a disappointing 6-4 and are coming off a bitter home loss to Florida. Texas A&M has been staggering in the 2nd half of the season, but to be fair, they have been without the services of their starting QB Trevor Knight who really made the offense work with his mobility. Motivation for both teams is an issue to think about.
The Match-Up
LSU offense vs Texas A&M defense
The Tigers had a really good day against the Gators’ defense. Over 200 yards rushing and 200 yards passing. And they still only managed 10 points. Mistakes and inefficiency in the red zone, not to mention some dicey play calling, really did them in last week. At press time, we expect that L Fournette is a no-go this week. RB D Guice has been great this season and is still averaging 8 yards per carry to go along with his 10 TDs rushing. QB D Etling has not been a disaster, but he only has 7 TD passes (!) and the leading receiver on the team has 403 yards (M Dupre). It looks like the same old game plan. Run run run. Try to MATRICULATE down the field for a big play or two.
The Texas A&M defense is decent against the run (#6 SEC in yards per carry allowed) but can wear down if teams keep putting it to them with the ground attack. MEGALOCKS SEC INSIDERS know that the Aggies are #2 in the SEC in sacks per game and #1 (!) in TFL per game so they can really get PENETRATION. The LSU OL does a pretty good job of keeping the QB clean and avoiding negative plays so this should be a great match-up to watch.
Texas A&M offense vs LSU defense
So you are saying there’s a chance ? Texas A&M has a very balanced attack. And they get the Tigers’ defense off a physical game vs Florida AND likely without LB Kendell Beckwith which is yuuuuuge. QB J Hubenak has a fine group of WRs to work with and a soon-to-be 1,000 rusher in Trayveon Williams (956). Florida RB J Scarlett has 108 yards against the LSU D last week and the Tigers did not have to worry about a passing attack. LSU has a fantastic defense but are going to be tested this week.
MEGA MORSELS
LSU games are on a 7-1-2 run to the under…..Texas A&M has given up 574,490 yards in their last two SEC games (Miss St, Ole Miss).
Summary
We have already been burned once assuming that LSU would have a letdown after a tough loss. Well after the Bama game, they played a superb 60 minutes and destroyed Arkansas on the road. Can they rise up again ? Hard to say. It would be a lot to ask.
Texas A&M can still bag a 10-win season.
Conclusion
Official play: Still thinking about this one. <popcorn munching emoji>
Lean: Over 46.5 or better. Texas A&M at +5 or better.