Michigan at Ohio St – Preview and Prediction
OHIO ST 6.5 MICHIGAN (45.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Ohio St -5.5 Sagarin ratings – Ohio St -5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Ohio St 26 Michigan 19.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Ohio St 28 Michigan 25
The Game
Here we go. Ohio St vs Michigan. Meyer vs Harbaugh. A ton is at stake. Both teams 10-1. Whoa, Nellie !
If Michigan can pull out a victory, they are off to the Big 10 Title Game. If Ohio St wins, the picture becomes cloudier due to the whole “Penn St thing”. They would need help from Michigan St to get to the Big 10 Title Game. Otherwise, they have to get a blessing from the all-knowing Playoff Committee (“body of work”, “eye test”, “playing in space”) to get themselves a seat in the 4-team playoff. Drama, yo.
The Match-Up
Ohio St offense vs Michigan defense
We all know by now. Ohio St is having trouble getting the ball down the field in the passing game. JT Barrett has had a fine season (24 TD 4 INT, 722 rush yards) but has had limited success stretching the defense. Michigan has a phenomenal defense (#1-FBS) that is great against the run and devastating against the pass (#2 pass eff D – FBS). Ohio will have to mix it up with 1,000-yd back C Weber, do-everything guy C Samuel, and get some key 3rd down scrambles from Barrett to keep drives alive. Michigan is ALSO #1 in the FBS in 3rd down conversion defense. It seems to us that it is going to be difficult to have long sustained drives. At some point the Buckeyes are gonna have to take a couple of deep shots to loosen things up. The Buckeyes got 23 (pre-OT) vs the Badgers and then 21,24,17 vs Penn St, NW and Mich St. Hard to imagine them getting past 24 against the Wolverines. Of course, they may not need to do that to win the game. Ohio St will have to be very alert to Michigan PENETRATION as the Wolverines are #1 in the Big 10 in sacks per game and #1 in TFL per game (also #1 FBS). It very well may be a big defensive play or two that gets things rolling for Go Blue.
Michigan offense vs Ohio St defense
This was not expected. A QB “situation”. Wilton Speight will be a game-time decision and it is most likely that John O’KORN will lead the Wolverines on to the field on Saturday. No, he did not play particularly well against Indiana, but let’s not get crazy. The weather was not great and the Michigan QB is not asked to do too much given how great their defense plays. Michigan QBs have only thrown 4 INT all season and the running game should be there with D Smith to maintain some balance. Ohio St also has an excellent stop unit and they are #1 in the FBS in pass efficiency defense. Will either team even ATTEMPT a pass ? Danger. Danger. We are not going to pretend to know how O’Korn or a banged-up Speight will play. We do know that this Michigan offense has a good run blocking OL and some nice veteran targets in the passing game. Michigan will also need to hit a big play or two in the passing game although we DO give them more of a shot running the ball than you might think. Ohio St has demonstrated a SOFT UNDERBELLY at times.
MEGA MORSELS
Ohio St is on an 11-1 run SU against Michigan and have covered the spread in 7 of the last 9 meetings….Last season Ohio St smoked Michigan 42-13 at the Big House….Urban Meyer is now 4-0 against Michigan in his Ohio St tenure but this is only the 2nd meeting against his pal Jim Harbaugh……Neither team is coming in playing their best football….Ohio St was outgained by Sparty and Michigan has only managed 485 total yards in the last TWO games combined.
Summary
We were warming up to taking Michigan and the points. Now we are not so sure given the QB situation. Need to follow the news for another day or two. Will probably have more luck tracking down foreign nuclear codes than getting QB intel from the Michigan camp.
It feels like a one-score game. The Wolverines defense could literally shut things down almost completely, and if that is the case, catching 7 points or so seems tasty.
Conclusion
Official play: None. Yet.
Lean: Michigan at +7 or better. Under 45 or better.