Arizona St at Arizona – Preview and Prediction
ARIZONA ST 3 ARIZONA (69)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Arizona St -4.5 Sagarin ratings – Arizona St -7
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Arizona St 36 Arizona 33
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Arizona St 38 Arizona 35
The Game
The Territorial Cup. Yes, it is a big deal in the state of Arizona, even when both teams are playing significantly below expectations. The Wildcats are 0-8 in PAC 12 play and have been outscored by an unseemly 358-147. The have somehow gotten worse as the season has gone along, and most of that has to do with injuries. Arizona St has also been hit hard by injuries, but to be fair, they have also been very inconsistent. Their pass defense has been horrific. Despite all of that, the Sun Devils can make a bowl game with a win on Friday night. The 6-6 record will be a bit of a disappointment, but it will allow the team to get all of those important bowl practices and try and set the tone for next season. Arizona would love to spoil the party. Intrigue !
The Match-Up
Arizona St offense vs Arizona defense
The Sun Devils will be facing a team that cannot stop the run or the pass. Or get PENETRATION. Injuries have forced the Wildcats to use 21 different starters on defense this season which is pretty amazing. And unfortunate. The Sun Devils OL has been a mess and hope to get a bit healthier this week. The reality is that they have a lot of weapons for the Wildcats to worry about. QB Manny Wilkins has been erratic but is a playmaker. RBs D Richard and K Ballage provide a nice 1-2 combo. The WR group is banged up but Jalen Harvey should be ready to go, Tim White may be a bit healthier, and N’Keal Harry has been a nice surprise as a freshman. It seems to us that the Wildcats are going to have a lot of trouble stopping Arizona St without the help of turnovers. But he, we have seen them do that before !
Arizona offense vs Arizona St defense
Arizona will try and cobble an offense together for this one but it will not be easy. They have injuries all over the place (Solomon – QB not 100%; RB Nick Wilson OFY) and will go with the elusive and unpredictable QB Brandon Dawkins. Converted WR S Grant will be the #1 RB. The OL has not been great. The good news is that if there was EVER a game to get the passing game rolling this would be it. Unfortunately, this is probably the worst match-up possible for the Wildcats as it does not appear that they have the GOODS to consistently threaten the Sun Devils by MATRICULATING in the passing game. Arizona St is getting healthier, do a better job against the run, and they DO have the ability to get PENETRATION. The Wildcats have only scored 14,10,7,24,17 the past five games.
MEGA MORSELS
The biggest edge in this game may be the special teams advantage for the Sun Devils pretty much across the board…..Arizona has only managed to bag two wins…..Grambling St and Hawaii…..A bit of a puzzler for TREND GUY….The Wildcats are 7-19 ATS L26….but the underdog in the series is 13-6 L19 ATS.
Summary
As you know, we just do our best to handicap the game and let other people worry about monsters under the bed. It seems to us that Arizona St is the much better team and Arizona is playing awful football right now. It is not the same team that played very well against Washington earlier in the season. Yes, it is a rivalry game, and yes, the Wildcats are at home. If the spread was -7 we would ignore the game but we feel that -3 is a very fair price.
Hopefully a bit more attention to detail for the Sun Devils needing the game will mean something.
Conclusion
Official play: Arizona St -3 -106 (would play up to -4)