Troy at Georgia Southern – Preview and Prediction
TROY 7.5 GEORGIA SOUTHERN (54.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Troy -8 Sagarin ratings – Troy -6
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Troy 31 Georgia Southern 23.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Troy 31 Georgia Southern 24
The Game
Troy gets a chance to play for a share of the Sun Belt conference title with a win over the Eagles on Saturday. They would also stay on course to have a remarkable 11-win season. Georgia Southern has only won one game (!!) since September 17th (we checked it) (and again) and have been a hot mess most of the season. Now to be fair, they have made a number of changes including a new HC. They have also played a bunch of close games. Could they play spoiler ? Hmm.
The Match-Up
Troy offense vs Ga Southern defense
The Trojans have a very balanced offense led by QB Brandon Silvers. The Trojans have several targets that they use in the passing game and they spread the ball around well. The big weapon is RB Jordan Chunn (1,153 – 11 TD) and that will be the Eagles’ focus on defense. Georgia Southern has not done a particularly good job against the run or the pass this season and have given up 30+ points in each of their last four games. Their best bet is to force some mistakes (Troy was -5 in turnovers vs Ark St) and play solid 3rd down defense (#14 FBS).
Ga Southern offense vs Troy defense
This is going to be a tough match-up for the Eagles. They like to run the ball but Troy’s run defense is very solid and ranks #13 in the FBS and #1 in the Sun Belt. Ga Southern will have to keep mixing things up with the dual QBs and hope they can hit a couple of big runs and maybe even a big play in the passing game. Their running game has not been the monster of past seasons but they have scored 20+ in every game this season other than one (App St -10).
MEGA-MAZING MINUTIA
TREND GUY will be pleased to hear that the Trojans are 8-1-1 to the under in their last 10 conference games…..The Eagles are 9-3 to the under in their past 12 conference tilts….Last season Ga Southern won big on the road at Troy 45-10.
Summary
Troy is the better team on both sides of the ball. However, as we have said many times, motivation is a funny thing. Georgia Southern would love to play spoiler here and they have had an extra week off to get ready. We lean to the Trojans, but cannot fully recommend.
Conclusion
Official play: None
Lean: Troy -7 or better for small potatoes.