NEW ORLEANS BOWL PREVIEW – SOUTHERN MISS vs UL LAFAYETTE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 3.5 UL LAFAYETTE (58)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Southern Miss -7 Sagarin ratings – UL Lafayette -1
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Southern Mississippi 30.75 UL Lafayette 26.75
The Game
The Golden Eagles broke a really ugly losing streak in the last game of the season with a big win over La Tech to finish at 6-6 and garner a spot in the New Orleans Bowl. The Rajin Cajuns won three of their last four contests to earn another trip to the bowl game they have never lost (4-0). Both teams will have a lot of fans at the game and it should be an entertaining match-up with a great atmosphere. Let’s go !
The Match-Up
Southern Mississippi offense vs UL Lafayette defense
If you want to know what a difference a really good QB can make, you need look no further than how the Golden Eagles fared when Nick Mullens was injured. He got knocked out during the loss to Charlotte and was absent for the losses to Old Dominion and North Texas. In the two full games without Mullens, So Miss had 9 turnovers, yielded 9 sacks and completed well under 50% of their passes. When he returned for the game vs La Tech, he dominated and led the team to a throttling of the Bulldogs, who were playing for home field advantage in the C-USA Title game, and were speaking highly of avenging a similar THROTTLING in 2015.
The Golden Eagles are going to test the Rajin Cajun defense who has not played a dynamic and balanced offense like this since the week one game vs Boise St (45-10 home loss). QB Nick Mullens does a great job of MATRICULATING down the field in the passing game and distributing the ball to a bunch of different players (7 guys 250+ yards receiving). RB “Judge” Ito Smith had his second straight 1,000 yard season and surpassed the 100-yard mark in seven games. He also caught 42 balls.
The Golden Eagles OL gave up too many sacks and TFL (#8, #11 C-USA) but we feel a lot better with the crafty veteran Mullens taking the snaps. ULL only managed 2 sacks in the last five games of the season. The Rajin Cajuns only allowed 3.3 yards per carry (#1 Sun Belt) but yielded 62% completions and got lit up vs most of the decent QBs they faced. We forecast a PASS FIRST offense mixing up Smith in the running game.
UL Lafayette offense vs Southern Mississippi defense
The Rajin Cajin offense was 9th in the Sun Belt in both yards per game and yards per play. QB A Jennings was decent but threw more INT (12) than TD passes (11). RB E McGuire eclipsed the 1,000 yard mark for the second straight season and needs to have a big game for UL Lafayette to stay in this game. S Miss has the #42 ranked defense in the FBS, and are most definitely going to load up to stop the run and make Jennings beat them through the air. The #103 passing attack is going to have its hands full with the #1 overall defense and pass defense in C-USA. The Golden Eagles just finished shutting down one of the most explosive offenses in college football (La Tech).
Motivation / Intangibles
Southern Mississippi – We like the fact that S Miss comes into this game with a healthy QB and off a nice win. Their should be plenty of S Miss support at the game, and the Golden Eagles have played in this game before and won it in 2008. They have a first year HC and a senior QB and feel like they are playing with house money. GRADE – Above Average.
La Lafayette – The Rajin Cajuns are 4-0 in the New Orleans Bowl. HC Mark Hudspeth was there for every win. They are playing close to home. They will be fired up. GRADE – Very good.
MEGA BOWL BITES
Hey…..another bowl team that was outgained during the regular season….(ULL)…..Meanwhile, S Miss outgained their opponents by an amazing 1,690+ yards (!) and had more than 100 first downs than their opponents……S Miss ended a brutal ATS streak in the last week of the season but still finished close to a cumulative -80 ATS during the regular season…..Amaze your local cocktail waitress HOTTIE with this gem…..Michigan led the nation in 3rd down defense….Guess who was #2 ??? …….That’s right kids – the Southern Miss Golden Eagles…..UL Lafayette has the potential to win this game strictly based on turnovers as S Miss was a brutal (-16) during the regular season.
Summary
Why even play the game ? The game is in Louisiana and the Rajin Cajuns have never lost in this bowl.
S Miss appears to be the much better squad on paper. They beat Kentucky. Lost a close one to Troy. Were tied with LSU at the half. They really got into a funk mid-late season but feel that they have their mojo back with a healthy QB. Their defense is very underrated.
Conclusion
Official play: Southern Mississippi -3.5 -115 (would play up to -5.5)
Best play on the game: See above.
Underdog ML playable for small potatoes (Y,N) ?: NO