CAMELLIA BOWL PREVIEW – APPALACHIAN ST vs TOLEDO
TOLEDO 1.5 APPALACHIAN ST (57.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Pick em Sagarin ratings – Pick em
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Toledo 29.5 Appalachian St 28
The Game
It is a tradition unlike any other. The Raycom Media Camellia Bowl.
The good news is that this could be one of the THE best games of the entire bowl season. Both teams are really good and appear to be evenly matched. Toledo finished up with yet another good season (9-3) and lost to the JUGGERNAUT W Michigan Broncos when they had a shot at the MAC West crown. Appalachian St also had a fine campaign finishing up at 9-3 and earning a share of the Sun Belt title (Arkansas St).
The Match-Up
Toledo offense vs Appalachian St defense
This should be really interesting. Toledo had the #4 ranked offense in the FBS during the regular season and were #2 in passing efficiency. When you combine that with a rock solid running game and a 1,300-yard RB you are going to score some points. QB Logan Woodside has been a force all season and ended up with an outstanding 43 TD to 9 INT ratio. They put up 53 points on the road at BYU (!) and outgained W Michigan while scoring 35. The X-FACTOR (what does that even mean ?) could be TE Michael Roberts who led FBS TEs with 15 (!) TD receptions during the regular season. As good as the Mountaineers’ defense has been, they are going to face a stiff challenge in this game.
Appalachian St had the #1 defense in the Sun Belt in terms of yards allowed AND yards per play. Their stop unit was ranked #15 in the FBS and they only gave up 326 yards per game. We can see them doing a good job vs the run but have a hard time seeing them slowing down the Toledo passing attack. They only registered 21 sacks and played a fairly mediocre set of QBs. When they faced decent passing attacks (Miami, Akron, Troy) they got lit up. Having said that, they only allowed 10 TD passes vs 20 INT (!) so this in one match-up that is hard to predict. One thing we do know. The Mountaineers are scrappy, good on 3rd downs and good in the red zone.
Appalachian St offense vs Toledo defense
The Mountaineers have a great 1-2 punch at RB with Jalin Moore and Marcus Cox. The two RBs combined for over 2,200 yards and 18 TDs on the ground. QB Taylor Lamb is also a crafty runner and had 8 rushing TDs. The passing game should be fairly easy for the Rockets to handle but they better stop that running game because Lamb will be able to pick them apart with short passes if they focus too much on the running game. Toledo was very good on 3rd down defense whilst the Mountaineers were one of the worst teams in the FBS (#116) trying to convert on 3rd down.
Our primary concern for the Rockets is there ability to stop the run. Down the stretch they got rolled for 269,214,249 yards rushing vs Ohio, N Illinois and W Michigan respectively. Appalachian St will keep coming at you with that running game. The key will be to force 3rd and medium and/or 3rd and long most of the game.
Motivation / Intangibles
Toledo – The Rockets played an inspired game vs Temple last year under HC Jason Candle. The program just keeps winning but we have to wonder about the motivation for a Camellia Bowl appearance vs a Sun Belt opponent. GRADE – Below Average.
Appalachian St – These guys would be fired up to play for a ham sandwich. The interesting thing to note is that the Mountaineers won THIS bowl game last season. Will they be less motivated ? Will they have the fire of defending champions ? Hard to say. Being the underdog helps. GRADE – Above Average.
MEGA BOWL BITES
Toledo is on a 19-7-2 ATS run (65%) in their last 28 games…..Both of these head coaches are on the short list of many bigger schools in need of a new man in charge….App St kicker M Rubino is CASH MONEY from inside 40 yards (14/14) but 2/6 outside of that range…..Toledo PK has similar stats inside 40 yards (9/10) but only hit 50% of his tries from 40+ yards.
Summary
This is a really difficult game to call. Both of these teams are tough fades. It feels like a game that could go either way. The spread and total look about right to us. If we had to have an interest in the game, we would probably lean to the team with the more reliable defense and what we believe will be the more effective ground attack.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Best play on the game: Appalachian St +1.5 or better for small potatoes. You may want to see if you can grab +3 later in the week if the STEAM comes in on Toledo.
Underdog ML playable for small potatoes (Y,N) ?: NO (unless App St hits +120 or better)