LAS VEGAS BOWL PREVIEW – HOUSTON vs SAN DIEGO ST
HOUSTON 3.5 SAN DIEGO ST (54.5)
MEGALOCKS line – Houston -5 Sagarin line – Houston -9.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score – Houston 29 San Diego St 25.5
The Game
They did it. Just a little differently than some may have thought. San Diego St was a popular choice to win the Mountain West Title and they did just that. Again. The final three games of the season were a little different than we are used to seeing from the Aztecs (high-scoring, some actual conference LOSSES) but they managed to beat Wyoming for all the marbles in the final game to grab the crown. Ten wins already and looking for back-to-back 11-win campaigns.
Houston also had really high expectations for this season, and after the week one win over Oklahoma, those hopes looked justified. A little mid-season slump later and the plans for a conference title were quashed, not to mention any hopes for making the college football playoff. They enter this game off a decent 9-3 season but will have to win this game without former HC Tom Herman who left for Texas. New HC Major Applewhite will be at the controls for the bowl game.
And we are off to VEGAS !!
The Matchup
Houston offense vs San Diego St defense
It is all about star QB Greg Ward who completed over 67% of his passes with an impressive 22 TD to 9 INT ratio. Ward also led the team in rushing with 518 net yards on the ground. Houston should be able to have a good day throwing the football as the Aztecs did not face many decent QBs, and when they did, they gave up yards. The Aztecs were #1 in the Mountain West in sacks per game and will have to try and corral Ward and get PENETRATION vs an offensive line that was very average to put it nicely this season. Houston’s running game was nowhere near the monster of last season (157 yards per game this season, 236 last year) and have relied a bit too much on the ability of Ward to scramble. The Aztecs’ defense is a lot more trustworthy stopping the run (#1 Mountain West in rushing yards per game, yards per carry) than the pass, and we see tough sledding for the RB crew of the Cougars.
San Diego St offense vs Houston defense
One of the most interesting match-ups of the entire bowl season will take place during this game. Star RB Donnel Pumphrey will play in his last college game in the Las Vegas Bowl. Pumphrey had a remarkable 2,000-yard (!) rushing season to go along with 26 receptions. “Back-up” Rashaad Penny is a devastating #2 man who will eclipse the 1,000- barrier in this game (995) and he averaged 7.9 yards per carry during the regular season. Houston has an excellent run defense and are ranked #3 in rushing defense allowing less than 100 yards per game on the ground. S Alabama held the Aztecs’ running game in check so we know it CAN be done. It is just a difficult task. The Aztecs do not MATRICULATE in the passing game very often (#119 passing), but when they do, they do it efficiently (#32). Houston can definitely be had via the air attack but not sure this is a great match-up for the Aztecs. The only way the passing game works is if the running game can do a good job on first and second down. That remains to be seen.
Motivation / Intangibles
Houston – This is a tough one to figure. Lose the best coach in history (source: ESPN). On the flipside, they go into this game KNOWING who the new HC will be next year. The seniors should play hard in their final game. The young guys have a shot to impress. Of course, we have seen this exact scenario many times over the years and there does not seem to be a consistent pattern to how things play out. Guessing game. GRADE: Puzzle Wrapped Inside An Enigma. No clue.
San Diego St – Ok. They won the Mountain West two years in a row. You have to think that is MISSION ACCOMPLISHED for this group of seniors. Houston is a similar program (on the rise, getting more attention) so that would put a nice feather in the cap with a win in Vegas. Is that enough to get them to play as hard as they need to play ? GRADE: Average.
MEGA BOWL BITES
Rocky Long is just 3-7 in 10 bowl game appearances including a 2-3 record with San Diego St….We feel like we are 0-11 somehow when picking a side in his 10 bowl appearances and just seem to bring out the worst in him when we trust him lol….Enjoy the ride if you back the Aztecs….San Diego St is on a 2-9-1 ATS run last 12 non-conference games….Impress your STEROID-ENHANCED PERSONAL TRAINER with this gem….San Diego St RB D Pumphrey needs just 108 rushing yards to become the ALL TIME NCAA leading rusher (Ron Dayne)……Should be interesting facing a really tough defense….He seems like a good dude we are pulling for him.
Summary
We may be wrong, but we feel like Houston would have been a TD favorite without the coaching change. Houston in the neighborhood of -4 seems like decent value for the more balanced offensive team and better run defense. The question is – where are their heads at ?
Conclusion
Official play: None
Best play on the game: Houston -4 or better for small potatoes. The team total over seems ok as well.
Underdog ML playable ? Y,N – NO (do not trust Rocky Long at a short price)