FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL PREVIEW – IDAHO vs COLORADO ST
COLORADO ST 13.5 IDAHO (64.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Colorado St -11 Sagarin ratings – Colorado St -9.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Colorado St 39 Idaho 25.5
The Game
This has the potential to be a really fun game. Despite being named after potatoes.
Colorado St was on SUPAH HOT FIRE down the stretch scoring 42,37,46,49 and 63 in their last five games of the regular season, and three of those contests were vs bowl teams. Idaho was also really good in the 2nd half of the season and finished up with a FOUR game winning streak. The Vandals were an under-the-radar 6-2 in the Sun Belt and have already bagged 8 wins.
The Match-Up
Colorado St offense vs Idaho defense
Idaho yielded less than 30 points per game (29.8) this season which is pretty impressive given that they allowed 42 points per contest in 2015. Idaho was still only ranked #8 in the Sun Belt (!) in yards per play defense (6.01) and are going to have trouble slowing down the Rams’ attack. Their best chance will be to force some turnovers (+8 in turnover margin) and hope that Colorado makes some mistakes. Not impossible. Just very unlikely.
Nick Stevens looked great over the last month of the season, and in general, the Rams were really efficient throwing the football (#19 efficiency FBS) and only threw 5 INT. The OL is really good at run blocking and keeping the QB clean. D Dawkins and I Matthews provide a solid RB tandem. The Rams only had one player record more than 400 yards receving (WR – M Gallup – 1,164) so the Vandals know who to focus on in coverage.
Idaho offense vs Colorado St defense
There is hope for Vandals’ fans. They were only ranked #93 in total offense in the FBS but did finish relatively high in time of possession (#30) because they have just enough balance on offense and really good play calling. Colorado St’s defense was ranked #99 vs the run and #83 in pass efficiency defense. They were also really bad in 3rd down defense (#123). Idaho has a smart QB in Matt Linehan, a pair of 500+ yard RBs and boast 5 players with over 350 yards receiving. The Vandals should be able to get the match-ups they want and will have to execute on 3rd downs.
Motivation / Intangibles
Colorado St – The Rams lost to Nevada in the Arizona Bowl last season. HC Mike Bobo will try and grab his first bowl win this time around. It is hard to imagine the Rams getting too geeked up over this match-up. GRADE – Average.
Idaho – The Vandals are off to the FCS (Big Sky) in 2018. This is most likely their last bowl game given the senior talent on the roster that will not be here next season. Their last stand at a game being played in Idaho. May not mean a hill of beans, but motivation can be a powerful thing. GRADE – Excellent.
MEGA BOWL BITES
The Rams are on an impressive 34-16-1 ATS run L51 games…..However, they did lose their bowl game in 2015 as noted above…..Idaho has a lethal weapon at PK in Austin Rehkow who is one of the best PK in the FBS….he also handles the punting duties….It goes without saying…..but keep an eye on the weather as we get closer to game day.
Summary
We were anxiously awaiting the bowl match-ups with an eye on who the Rams would be playing. Sadly, this is a game that they should win easily (on PAPER), but the point spread is making you pay a premium in our opinion.
Hard to lay this many points with the motivational factors at play for Idaho. Cannot recommend a play on the total until we are more certain about what the weather will be like on December 22nd.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Best play on the game: Idaho first half. No lower than +7. Would wait to try and grab +7.5.
Underdog ML playable for small potatoes (Y,N) ?: YES.