Air Force Falcons 2016 NCAA Football Preview
AIR FORCE FALCONS
Mountain West – Mountain Division
2015 Record – 8-6
ATS – 8-5-1
2016 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating Rank
Mountain Division #2
Conference #3
2015 Recap
The Falcons had a fine season last year – although it did end on a downward note. They came within a FG of winning their first conference title since 1998 (WAC) losing 27-24 to a very good San Diego St team. They were outmatched by the passing game of California in the Armed Forces Bowl – but still managed to win 8 games on the season. Their losses? In addition to the two games previously noted – every loss was to a bowl team – including losses at Michigan St and Navy. They provided nice value ATS despite coming off a 10-win season running their 2-year total to 16-10-1 (61.5%).
2016 Preview
OFFENSE
The Falcons look pretty loaded. Romine returns at QB after missing most of last season with an injury. The RB corps is deep and talented. WR Jalen Robinette needs 665 yards to become the school’s all-time leader. Last year he had 641 yards averaging almost 25 yards a pop – and with that outstanding running game drawing plenty of attention – he should hit plenty of big plays in 2016. Their OL is a bit less experienced but should have another fine unit. They do not pass very often – but when they do – they do not get sacked (2015 #1 NCAA sacks allowed – 3).
JUGGERNAUT ALERT – RB Tim McVey had 13 TDs last year (9 rushing, 4 receiving) and was a big play waiting to happen – 8.3 yards per carry and over 30 yards per catch on 10 receptions. Keep in mind he only had 16 rushing attempts and no receptions at the end of October last year so we expect an exciting and productive season out of McVey in 2016 providing he can remain healthy.
DEFENSE
The Falcons’ D was sneaky good once again in 2015. They were ranked 32nd overall in total defense and the last two years have been solid. Points allowed (25.5, 24.2) Rushing yards allowed (145, 136) Defensive completion % (53% 55%) – and most impressive of all – 73 SACKS the last 2 years (37,36). Now that is a statistic that jumps off the page. They lose sack leader Alex Hansen but return a lot of players who have proven they can get to the QB. They appear strong again at all three levels of the defense.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Air Force returns Luke Strebel at PK and he hit 10-11 including 5-5 from 40+ yards last year. P remains a question mark (2015 – 12th in net punting MWC) and the return game and return defense was pretty mediocre outside of a 75-yard PR by Garrett Brown last year.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 8.0
MEGALOCKS says:
The 2016 season should prove to be a successful one for the Falcons. They run a very efficient and productive offense. They are disciplined – ranked 4th and 3rd the last two seasons in # of penalties / game. Suddenly red-hot at home – a school record 12 straight wins. There is also plenty of experience coming back this season. However, we believe that the driving force in 2016 will be motivation.
Now certainly, Air Force does not need to be told about motivation – but they must have a somewhat bitter taste in their mouths after the 2015 season. They were beaten soundly by Navy. Lost a close one in the Conference Title Game to San Diego St. Then were torn apart by a premium passing offense in their bowl game – all without their leading tackler Weston Steelhammer – who was ejected on a borderline targeting call early in the first quarter. In any event – the last thing Air Force remembers is getting torched for by future-NFL starter Jared Goff for a California school bowl record 467 yards – a record formerly held by some dude named Aaron Rodgers.
When you add discipline – to motivation – and sprinkle in an easy schedule – We see a lot of upside for Air Force this season. What could go wrong? Well we are not sure about the depth at QB and goodness knows they take some punishment. They are also a combined -21 in turnover margin the last 5 seasons (were +27 the two prior seasons) and it would help them a great deal if they could play just a little bit cleaner in that regard in 2016.
Overall, we give the FALCONS an 8.0 ATS Value Rating (Very Good) this season. The rating could have been made higher but we have some concerns. It is hard to put three impressive ATS seasons together in a row. As noted earlier, they are on a 16-10-1 run (8-5-1, 8-5) and bettors should be locked in to the quality of this team. Once they get rolling past the Utah St and Navy games and start drilling people the value may evaporate. Get ‘em early, folks.
Want more Air Force Football?
Website
http://www.goairforcefalcons.com/sports/m-footbl/afa-m-footbl-body.html
Forum
http://www.scout.com/college/air-force/forums/1553-air-force-academy-falcons-football
News
http://gazette.com/sports/air-force-academy
http://ricksfalconreview.blogspot.ca/
https://twitter.com/AFFootball (@AFFootball) #WeFlyTogether
https://twitter.com/BrentBriggeman (@BrentBriggeman) Brent Briggeman