College Football Predictions – Air Force Falcons 2019 College Football Preview
2018 Recap
Record – 5-7
ATS – 6-5-1
“Snakes. Why did it have to be snakes?” <Indiana Jones> <Raiders of the Lost Ark> <1981>
The Falcons were SNAKE-BITTEN and did not catch many breaks in the many close games they participated in last year. They lost five games by a combined 24 points (6,3,4,3,8) and didn’t lose a single contest by more than 10 points all year. To be fair, none of their five wins came against the cream of the crop (Stony Brook, Navy, UNLV, New Mexico, Colorado St), it’s just worth noting that they could have easily notched a few more victories.
Are the Falcons ready to rebound? Let’s find out.
2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Mountain Division – #3
Mountain West – #5
Air Force Falcons 2019 Outlook
OFFENSE
Air Force posted 30+ PPG for the fifth consecutive time last year (30.3) and have the potential to be really good in 2019. The Falcons boast two talented signal callers and that is great news for an offense that thrives on efficient QB play. D.J. Hammond and Isaiah Sanders were both effective in the THROW GAME (AF #4 MW passing efficiency) and they combined for 15 rushing TDs. The option attack will thrive with a RB group that has a lot of depth, even with the departure of last year’s leading rusher Cole Fagan (997, 7 TD). There is some good size at WR and our MOUNTAIN WEST DIMINUTIVE WEAPONS INSIDERS tell us that WR Brandon Lewis (5’9 165) could be a dangerous threat. More good news. The offensive line brings back four starters and the Falcons averaged 4.8 YPC a season ago and only yielded 10 sacks.
The Falcons have the potential for a significant increase in scoring production and they may be able to surpass what was accomplished by the 2016 squad (35.2 PPG).
DEFENSE
The Falcons were sneaky-good last year and were #2 in the Mountain West in run defense (117 YPG) and #5 in total defense (361 YPG). Seven starters are back in the mix and the front-seven looks very strong. DE Jordan Jackson achieved 2nd Team Mountain West accolades last year and led the team with 4.5 sacks and 12.5 TFL. Jackson is one of the premier defense players in the conference. The Air Force LBs are talented and are led by senior Kyle Johnson who was the #2 tackler in 2018. You want tackles? The secondary brings back three starters including FS Jeremy Fejedelem who bagged 104 stops last year.
Now, it’s not a great sign when your free safety leads the team in tackles, and it should also be noted that the pass defense let the Falcons down on numerous occasions LY (#11 MW in pass efficiency defense). It would help the Falcons’ overall fortunes if they can make a notable improvement vs the pass.
Air Force has yielded close to 25 PPG in four of the last five years (25.8 LY) and we project a similar level of performance in 2019, with a dash of upside potential.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Falcons are in decent shape with Jake Koehnke back to handle the PK and punting duties but they need to find new return men. Air Force typically fields above-average special teams units.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – There are definitely some wins hiding in the slate (Colgate, San Jose St, at New Mexico) but they also have a tough six-week stretch in which they play four road games. They also do battle ten straight weeks without the benefit of a bye.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – San Jose St (September 27)
The Falcons will be laying a ton of points and they are just 18-28-1 (39%) ATS as home chalk over the past ten years. It’s also a SANDWICH GAME (at Boise St, at Navy).
Season Win Total
Over 8 +158
Under 8 -180
MEGALOCKS says:
These guys can definitely get to seven wins. Eight or nine? Tough to say.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The Falcons last conference title came back in 1998 when they won the WAC under the guidance of legendary HC Fisher DeBerry (12-1 record).
Long-snapper Austin Cutting became the first Falcon selected in the NFL draft since 1999 when he was chosen by the Vikings this year.
MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Positive
We have made it clear for a long time that we love watching the service academies play college football. We love it even MORE when they are playing well. Air Force has a shot to do some damage with one of the better Falcons’ rosters we have seen in some time. The offense should be able to carve most opponents up and the defense looks decent. The schedule is demanding, but you can’t have everything.
We recommend sticking the FLYBOYS on your watch list as we expect them to be a profitable squad ATS. Don’t forget that they did very well vs the point spread in 2014 and 2015 (16-10-1) when they had solid teams.
Go Air Force!
Want more Air Force Football ?
WEBSITE
http://www.goairforcefalcons.com/sports/m-footbl/afa-m-footbl-body.html
FORUM
NEWS
http://gazette.com/sports/air-force-academy
http://ricksfalconreview.blogspot.ca/
http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/2005/air-force-falcons
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/air-force-falcons
http://www.denverpost.com/sports/college/air-force-falcons/
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