College Football Predictions – Air Force Falcons 2020 College Football Preview
August 10, 2020
NOTE – SEVERAL PLAYERS OPTED OUT OF THE SEASON AFTER THIS PREVIEW WAS WRITTEN.
2019 Recap
Record – 11-2
ATS – 8-5
The Falcons booked their 3rd (!) double-digit win campaign and finished off the season with an eight-game winning streak. They lost at Boise St in September (L 30-19) and probably knew at that point that their hopes of making the Mountain West Championship Game were TOAST. They kept battling like they always do and only lost one more game the entire season (Navy). They ended the year in fine fashion by taking down Washington St in the Cheez-It Bowl (W 31-21).
Can these guys challenge Boise St in 2020?
2020 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Mountain Division – TBD
Mountain West – TBD
Air Force Falcons 2020 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Falcons were their usual LETHAL selves with the rushing attack last year as they carved through defenses to the tune of 299 YPG (#2 FBS). They did enough with the THROW GAME to keep defenses honest and that allowed them to post an impressive 34 PPG (#21 FBS). The straw that stirs the drink is QB Donald Hammond III who rushed for over 500 yards and 13 (!) TDs LY whilst tossing 13 TD passes. The Falcons are REALLY good when they have a QB that can run the system like Hammond III. (NOTE – Hammond has lost his cadet standing as we hit press time. If he is unable to play this year there is a yuuuuuge downgrade at QB; Very limited experience behind him. We’ll stay on top of it.) Their ground game will be rock solid once again with the return of 1,000-yard RB Kadin Remsberg (5.8 TD, 8 TD), FB Timothy Jackson (6.1, 6 TD), and an offensive line that boasts two of the best big men in the conference (LT Parker Ferguson, G Nolan Laufenberg). A major concern, even for a team focused so heavily on the run, has to be the loss of their two fine WRs Geraud Sanders and Benjamin Waters who combined for 14 TD receptions whilst averaging an impossible 24.9 and 29.9 yards per catch respectively.
We expect another devastating ground game but their overall explosiveness will likely suffer due to the losses at WR.
DEFENSE
One of the best kept secrets in college football last year was the Air Force run defense that allowed a mere 101 YPG (#7 FBS). Overall, the Falcons finished the campaign #20 in the country in scoring defense (19.8 PPG) (!) and #17 in total defense. They return a lot of starters in the front seven and will be stout up front once again, even with the departure of LB Kyle Johnson (#2 tackles LY) and star DL Mosese Fifita who led the team in sacks LY. The DL should be in fine shape with the return of Jordan Jackson and Christopher Herrera and note that leading tackler LB Demonte Weeks returns to the mix and he also bagged four sacks a season ago. Our MOUNTAIN WEST INSIDERS have concerns about a secondary that only returns one starter, particularly since they were #10 in the Mountain West in pass efficiency defense LY (21-7 TD to INT) and yielded a conference-worst 63% completion rate.
It’s not fair to expect the same level of performance from the stop unit this year, but they still look like an above-average Mountain West defense.
SPECIAL TEAMS
RUH ROH.
The Falcons have a yuuuuge hole to fill at PK given the departure of Jake Koehnke who hit 13/13 FG attempts in 2019. They also need to work in a new punter. The Falcons were 2nd last in the country in both PRs and KRs LY.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Awaiting revised schedule with dates. UPDATE – 8 games. Army and Navy as per usual. They draw SJ St from the West.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing spooky noted.
Season Win Total
TBD
MEGALOCKS says:
TBD
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The Commander In Chief’s Trophy is awarded to each season’s winner of the three-team series between Army, Navy, and Air Force. The Falcons have the most trophies in their case (20). Navy is next (16) followed by Army (8).
MEGALOCKS Outlook:
NOTE – SEVERAL PLAYERS OPTED OUT OF THE SEASON AFTER THIS PREVIEW WAS WRITTEN.
This has the look of another solid Air Force squad, but they’ll need Hammond to be available at QB in order to threaten Boise St in the Mountain Division. It doesn’t look good as we type this at MEGALOCKS HQ. The defense will be fine but the kicking game could be problematic. Reasonable goals for 2020 are to book another winning season and take down the Commander In Chief’s Trophy once again.
#Let’sFly !
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NEWS
https://gazette.com/sports/air-force-sports/
http://ricksfalconreview.blogspot.ca/
http://www.denverpost.com/sports/college/air-force-falcons/
https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/2005/air-force-falcons
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