Air Force Falcons 2026 College Football Preview
Posted June 20, 2026
2025 Recap
Record – 4-8
ATS – 5-7
“War is Peace. Freedom is Slavery. Ignorance is Strength.”
<1984> <George Orwell, 1949>
Air Force suffered their second consecutive losing campaign, an upside‑down reality that would make Orwell spit out his Victory Gin. They opened with the automatic win over something referred to as Bucknell, but then dropped five straight, and that was basically the season. To their credit, they kept swinging — as you’d expect — and closed with a blowout win over Colorado St.
So the question becomes… Can they keep that momentum rolling into 2026, or was that late‑season spark just another trick of the ORWELLIAN light?
Air Force Falcons 2026 Outlook
OFFENSE
2025 By The Numbers (Mountain West):
- Scoring: 29.8 PPG (#4 Mountain West)
- Total Offense: 406.6 YPG (#6 Mountain West)
- Rushing: 261.4 YPG (#1 Mountain West)
- Passing: 145.2 YPG (#12 Mountain West, dead last)
- Sacks Allowed: 16 (#2 Mountain West)
Yes, guy.
We’re pumped for this season of Air Force football as ALL-MEGALOCKS TEAM QB Liam Szarka is healthy and ready to go for the start of the year. Szarka made the offense hum last season when he was leading the charge (922 rush, 13 TD; 63%, 9-5 TD to INT) and he’s a devasting option QB. He’ll kill you with his legs, and burn you with the deep ball. They’ve got depth behind him, but let’s hope for a full season of Szarka.
There’s a bit of a reload at RB but they bring back FB Owen Allen (750, 5 TD), and the Falcons always find capable bodies to run the ball down your throat. There’s a reload required at WR, but they retain WR Jonah Dawson who proved last year that he’s capable of big plays (260, 21.7, TD). Up front, they’ll be fine as always, and they bring back a pair of starters and plenty of upperclassmen that know what they’re doing.
DEFENSE
2025 By The Numbers (Mountain West):
- Scoring: 30.3 PPG (#10 Mountain West)
- Total Defense: 423.2 YPG (#10 Mountain West)
- Rushing Defense: 158.5 YPG (#7 Mountain West)
- Passing Defense: 264.7 YPG (#12 Mountain West, dead last)
- Sacks: 16 (#11 Mountain West, tied for last)
The Falcons were pretty bad on defense, to put it politely, but there was a pulse. They were dramatically better in the second half of the season (21 PPG) compared to the train wreck in the first half (40 PPG!!). With eight of their top nine tacklers returning — plus most of their key contributors — things are legitimately looking up heading into 2026 in the Falcons defensive REBOOT.
The defensive line is the only true worry, as they’ll be rolling out a new group of starters. At least they’ve got several doods with some game action, and they just need to improve and produce. Keep an eye on DT Chaz Barnett (6‑5, 260) — he got into a few games last year, has a great frame, and could be the breakout name in the Air Force trenches.
Things look fantastic at linebacker, where almost the entire corps returns for battle, including leading tackler Blake Fletcher and HAVOC MACHINE Isaac Hubert (11.5 TFL, 7 QBH). That duo alone gives Air Force a legit backbone in the middle of the field and forms the core of the Falcons second‑level strength.
The secondary was absolutely TORCHED early in the season, but as noted in the defensive preamble, they settled down nicely in the back half. Basically everyone returns, and we like the potential of the entire group. We’re particularly intrigued by CB Korey Johnson, who has lockdown potential, and veteran free safety Roger Jones (#2 in tackles), who will act as a much‑needed stabilizer for the stop unit.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Special teams were GHASTLY a season ago — #121 per Phil Steele — and they were somehow even worse in 2024 (#132). Sadly, the outlook for 2026 isn’t much brighter. They lose their punter, PK, and primary return men.
Schedule Analysis
Overall — This is some SWEET ACTION. The non-conference schedule isn’t a cakewalk, but there’s a realistic path to 4-0 (Duquesne, Army, Navy, UConn). Air Force also gets a break by missing Hawaii in conference play, which should be one of the stronger teams in the Mountain West. They do get UNLV at home, but they’ll have to travel to New Mexico to close out the regular season.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – UConn (Oct 31)
Air Force will be looking to avenge last season’s loss in Storrs, but the scheduling is tricky. The Falcons come off a rivalry game in Laramie against hated Wyoming, then have to turn around and make a long trip for the EPIC battle at Army the following week.
Season Win Total
Market consensus – June 20
Over 6.5 -160
Under 6.5 +130
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Over
This should be a legit team that stays in the Mountain West mix all year. The schedule sets up nicely and gives them a legimiate shot at hitting the over.
Note – Our official list of season win total investments will be posted in the blog section of the website.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
In 1985, under second‑year coach Fisher DeBerry, the Falcons came out of nowhere and caught fire. They won their first 10 games, rocketed up the rankings, and climbed all the way to #4 in the country. For a moment, it looked like Air Force might actually make history. Then came a crushing 28–21 loss to BYU late in the season that shattered the dream. They still finished 12–1 and capped it with a bowl win over Texas. A service academy hadn’t just flirted with greatness — they’d come within arm’s reach of IMMORTALITY.
Air Force has now won five consecutive bowl games, a streak that dates back to the 2016 Arizona Bowl, when they obliterated South Alabama and quietly kicked off one of the sneakiest postseason HEATERS in the country.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
After back-to-back rough seasons, clearer skies are finally ahead in Colorado Springs. At a service academy, you need elite QB play to do big things, and the Falcons have a rising star under center in Liam Szarka. With a much-improved defense supporting him, this team will be able to beat any opponent on their schedule. They just need to play consistent Air Force football and avoid a nasty bite from the injury bug.
The roster is stabilizing, and Air Force is finally pulling out of its tailspin. We’re calling for eight wins and see the Falcons as a legitimate SURPRISE PACKAGE in the new-look Mountain West — a team capable of playing for the title and ready to take flight again when the conditions are right.
GO FALCONS!