Alabama at LSU – College Football Predictions
The Game
Yes, guy.
It’s finally here. ROLL TIDE vs LSU.
Alabama has been a lethal machine this season outscoring opponents 269-92 en route to an 8-0 record. They have barely broken a sweat in the 4th quarter in any of their games. LSU has been battling through a MEAT GRINDER of a schedule so far and can boast some quality wins including a blowout of Georgia.
Should we expect a blowout or another classic?
The Details
ROLL TIDE -14.5 LSU (54)
MEGALOCKS LINE – ROLL TIDE -13
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: ROLL TIDE 34.25 LSU 19.75
The Match-Up:
Alabama offense vs LSU defense
WHOA, NELLIE.
ROLL TIDE has been lighting people up at an alarming rate. The schedule has not been filled with killers BUT keep in mind that ROLL TIDE’s stats could be even more disgusting if they actually played their starters and tried to score points in the fourth quarters of their games. Tua has done a wonderful job at QB (25-0 TD to INT, 13.6 yards per attempt) and the top five players on the team in terms of receptions are averaging 25.1, 21.8, 18.5, 19.5 and 17.5 yards per catch. That is pretty ridiculous any way you cut it. The RB group is deep and there is pretty much nothing you can do to stop this offense. Now LSU? They certainly have the MINERALS to get some stops and force some turnovers as they have an excellent stop unit (#22 overall, #5 pass efficiency D) that will easily include the best pass defense that ROLL TIDE has faced this season. Outside of ROLL TIDE just being “awesome” on offense, we worry about two things. LSU does not get a ton of PENETRATION (#8 SEC sacks/game) and ROLL TIDE has only allowed 5 (!) sacks all season. The run game is not up to typical Bama standards but the pass protection has been out of this world. LSU will also be without star LB Devin White for the first half due to a targeting suspension. It seems to us that ROLL TIDE is a large favorite to score 30+ in this game.
LSU offense vs Alabama defense
The game plan for LSU has to center around limiting the number of possessions for the ROLL TIDE offense. They certainly have the weaponry to get that done by running the ball with the 1-2 punch of Nick Brossette and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. They have combined for over 1,200 rushing yards and 15 TDs and will have to get things done on the ground for LSU to have any shot of keeping this close. ROLL TIDE is #4 in the SEC in rush defense (113 yards per game) but they are not the brick wall of season’s past. They allowed 95,64 and 76 YPG rushing the past three years and they are allowing 3.54 YPC. The last time they allowed more than 3 yards per carry was back in 2014. ROLL TIDE is #1 in the SEC in sacks/game so LSU has to keep the 3rd and long situations to a bare minimum and attempt to MATRICULATE down the field with deep shots in non-obvious situations. The Tigers have a fine WR in Justin Jefferson but only have 6 TDs (!) through the air in eight games.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
LSU would love to have the kicking game matter in this match-up as they are #13 in the FBS in net punting and PK Cole Tracy is 19/19 (!) on FG inside 50 yards……ROLL TIDE has won seven consecutive games in this series.
Summary
This is one of our favorite games every year. Give us 3-0. A blowout. An OT classic. We love ourselves some sweet ROLL TIDE vs LSU action.
Can LSU keep this one close? The defense is solid but we are convinced it will come down to the ability (and desire by the OC) to run the ball and shorten the game as much as possible. The Tigers will have to pound the ball and make a couple early stops to see how ROLL TIDE reacts when they are part of an actual “close game” in the second half. It seems like a lot of points on the surface but ROLL TIDE has managed to rip everyone on their schedule to shreds. The schedule has not been overly strenuous but the fact remains that they have nuked everything in their path.
Keep the ball away from ROLL TIDE is key, but you are also going to have to score some points. This is where we see the problem for LSU. We have no problem with QB Joe Burrow unlike many folks but their offense is lacking in explosiveness. Guess who is DEAD LAST in the SEC in plays of 10+ yards? LSU (14th – 99). Those keeping score at home will note that ROLL TIDE leads the SEC in that department (161).
This feels like a game that Alabama will eventually put away sometime before the end of the 3rd quarter. CROWD WILL BE ROCKING GUY may have something to say about that because LSU is a tough place to play at night. Fortunately for the Tide, they have played a lot of big games this decade and in a lot of tough atmospheres.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Side: Slight lean to Alabama at -14 or lower (market price is currently -14.5; Wait to see if this line comes down if you cannot get a -14 where you shop)
Total: No leanage.
Special note:
We think the best play on this game is either a) take the ROLL TIDE team total over if you like ALABAMA or b) Take the LSU team total over if you like the Tigers. LSU is almost certainly not going to cover this game if they can’t hit 20 points.
As always:
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game. Nothing more. < but always stay tuned for updates >
‘Slight lean’ implies we are almost certain to avoid the game and/or total from a betting standpoint even for ‘small potatoes’. We give an opinion for those who need to get down and want advice.