Alabama at Texas – College Football Predictions
Posted September 8, 2022
The Game
Two big name programs go head-to-head on Saturday afternoon as Alabama goes ON THE HIGHWAY to take on Texas. The Longhorns wiped the floor with ULM in game one (W 52-10) whilst ROLL TIDE made minced meat of Mountain West champ (!) Utah St in a 55-CACK blowout.
Can the Longhorns keep this game competitive? Let’s dig in.
The Details
ROLL TIDE -19.5 Texas (65.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – ROLL TIDE -17.5
MEGALOCKS market consensus – ROLL TIDE -15.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: ROLL TIDE 42.5 Texas 23
The Match-Up:
ROLL TIDE offense vs Texas defense
The offense was in fine form last week as they rolled up 559 yards and tallied 41 points in the first half. Star QB Bryce Young threw 5 TD passes and rushed for 100 yards. Several RBs and WRs got their hands on the football and that’s bad news for the Texas defense this week. We expect improvement on defense for Texas this year but this doesn’t feel like the spot where we will see GREEN SHOOTS of growth. Recall that the Longhorns allowed 202 YPG on the ground LY, 67.6% completions, and recorded a mere 20 sacks. It looks like ROLL TIDE should be able to get to their implied team total.
Texas offense vs ROLL TIDE defense
Star recruit Quinn Ewers had a decent game in his first career start at QB (225, 2-1 TD to INT, 67%) but we know how the ROLL TIDE defense has treated young signal callers over the past decade and change. RB Bijon Robinson is one of the best in the business but it’s gonna be really tough to get anything going on a consistent basis vs the elite front seven. Ewers will have to get the ball out quick to his THROW GAME weaponry and he’s got some good targets at WR, as well as Robinson out of the backfield, and TE Ja’Tavion Sanders who caught six balls last week. They’ve got potential to move the ball at times but they shouldn’t expect many (any?) heinous blown coverages or poor tackling. They’ll have to earn everything they get.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Nick Saban faces former OC Steve Sarkisian…..He’s typically made quick work of former assistant coaches but note that JIMBO and Kirby Smart took him down last season….Texas will be joining the SEC so it’ll be interesting to see what kind of statement ROLL TIDE will make if they get a chance to run things up…..Weather forecast looks hot (90s) and clear, little to no wind.
Summary
It’s hard to come up with a power rating that justifies the current spread, but when it comes to ROLL TIDE (and Georgia), said ratings are somewhat irrelevant. The talent edge is just overwhelming. Oregon isn’t 46 points worse than Georgia from a PR perspective but look what happened last week.
Conclusion
Lean: ROLL TIDE -19.5
and
Official play: Texas team total under 21.5 -110 <sent 10:09am Sept 10>
Anything from 20.5 +115 to 23 -110 is out there. Shop around as always!
Note:
‘Official play’ implies we’ve played the game for our standard wager amount.
‘Lean’ implies we’re comfortable suggesting a ‘small potatoes’ wager if you want to get some sweet action down on the game. ‘Leans’ are eligible for upgrade to ‘official’ status during the week.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved from a wagering standpoint.