Alabama at Texas – College Football Predictions

Alabama at Texas – College Football Predictions

Posted September 8, 2022

The Game

Two big name programs go head-to-head on Saturday afternoon as Alabama goes ON THE HIGHWAY to take on Texas. The Longhorns wiped the floor with ULM in game one (W 52-10) whilst ROLL TIDE made minced meat of Mountain West champ (!) Utah St in a 55-CACK blowout.

Can the Longhorns keep this game competitive? Let’s dig in.

The Details

ROLL TIDE -19.5 Texas (65.5)

MEGALOCKS LINE – ROLL TIDE -17.5

MEGALOCKS market consensus – ROLL TIDE -15.5

“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: ROLL TIDE 42.5 Texas 23

The Match-Up:

ROLL TIDE offense vs Texas defense

The offense was in fine form last week as they rolled up 559 yards and tallied 41 points in the first half. Star QB Bryce Young threw 5 TD passes and rushed for 100 yards. Several RBs and WRs got their hands on the football and that’s bad news for the Texas defense this week. We expect improvement on defense for Texas this year but this doesn’t feel like the spot where we will see GREEN SHOOTS of growth. Recall that the Longhorns allowed 202 YPG on the ground LY, 67.6% completions, and recorded a mere 20 sacks. It looks like ROLL TIDE should be able to get to their implied team total.

Texas offense vs ROLL TIDE defense

Star recruit Quinn Ewers had a decent game in his first career start at QB (225, 2-1 TD to INT, 67%) but we know how the ROLL TIDE defense has treated young signal callers over the past decade and change. RB Bijon Robinson is one of the best in the business but it’s gonna be really tough to get anything going on a consistent basis vs the elite front seven. Ewers will have to get the ball out quick to his THROW GAME weaponry and he’s got some good targets at WR, as well as Robinson out of the backfield, and TE Ja’Tavion Sanders who caught six balls last week. They’ve got potential to move the ball at times but they shouldn’t expect many (any?) heinous blown coverages or poor tackling. They’ll have to earn everything they get.

Trends, Intangibles and More!

Nick Saban faces former OC Steve Sarkisian…..He’s typically made quick work of former assistant coaches but note that JIMBO and Kirby Smart took him down last season….Texas will be joining the SEC so it’ll be interesting to see what kind of statement ROLL TIDE will make if they get a chance to run things up…..Weather forecast looks hot (90s) and clear, little to no wind.

Summary

It’s hard to come up with a power rating that justifies the current spread, but when it comes to ROLL TIDE (and Georgia), said ratings are somewhat irrelevant. The talent edge is just overwhelming. Oregon isn’t 46 points worse than Georgia from a PR perspective but look what happened last week.

Conclusion

Lean: ROLL TIDE -19.5

and

Official play: Texas team total under 21.5 -110 <sent 10:09am Sept 10>

Anything from 20.5 +115 to 23 -110 is out there. Shop around as always!


Note:

‘Official play’ implies we’ve played the game for our standard wager amount.

‘Lean’ implies we’re comfortable suggesting a ‘small potatoes’ wager if you want to get some sweet action down on the game. ‘Leans’ are eligible for upgrade to ‘official’ status during the week.

‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved from a wagering standpoint.

4 thoughts on “Alabama at Texas – College Football Predictions”

  1. Kinda seem like Saban got the WR test drive out the way last week and maybe sticks to the bread n butter in this one kinda what we got from that cincy game?…. really short night for the RB’s vs aggies, cycled thru them quick .. feels like solid advantage w a heavy rush attack and just a torture chamber he could put his old friend in all night .. def not give UT an outside shot relying on a gaggle of new WR’s .. maybe up big late in the game air it out more but yeah huge road game, think im killing their hopes early, crushin their spirits late .. put my backup QB in if I want a try out .. and Milroe threw a pick last week hard to see him doing much besides handing off if he plays ..

    Did fun prop on Young under 325 passing think Nick might have a nice cackle getting his backup a few reps on these guys like early Q4 .. hit U65.5 and low limit book had a 66 .. feels like 66.5 would be a real play, maybe U35.5 H1 if we see that? .. 45-21 is a winner …. and so is 52-14 or 63-7 or 66-0 lol ..

    You gettin that vibe at all from Bama or just feelin real good UT gets kinda shut down here?

    1. Ya i think Bama does what they do and gets up 17+ and then just pounds and pounds , under 325 pass yards seems like a winning bet to me unless you think Texas can stay competitive which I don’t, yo….Trying to figure out what else to do with this one already have those couple of leans down for small taters

  2. Hit it a little more U66 … yeah unsure how many quick bama strikes im looking for but think in game under is another way to go … Sabanconda Sleeperhold could take hold pretty quick if up a couple ..

    Plumlee and Bowser RUMBLIN!!! LET’S GO!!!

    1. that UCF game was a clinic in Simple Jack coaching from both teams, dood !…..Entertaining but thought UCF would squeak it out at the end, yo

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