Alabama Crimson Tide 2016 NCAA Football Preview

Alabama Crimson Tide 2016 NCAA Football Preview

ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE                                                              

Southeastern Conference – West Division

2015 Record – 14-1

ATS – 8-7

2016 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating Rank

West Division #2

Conference #2

 

2015 Recap

They did it again. Alabama lost a close one early in the season to Ole Miss and then rolled to twelve straight wins and the National Championship. Clemson had 550 yards of offense in that contest but lost a competitive game 45-40.

The run defense was the usual brick wall (#1 FBS – 76 yards allowed per game) but Heisman winning RB Derrick Henry put the team on his back when needed and the Tide finished out games like a champ. A final note – Alabama had a negative turnover margin in only TWO games all season (-5 in loss to Ole Miss, -1 vs Arkansas).

 

2016 Preview

OFFENSE

It is nothing new for Alabama to win a championship while breaking in a new starting QB and they are going to try and do it again this season with Cooper Bateman or someone else behind center. With all the talent around on offense there is no reason to believe that it cannot be done. The weapons in the passing game look phenomenal. Freshman WR Calvin Ridley had a 1,000- yard season and highlights a deep group that includes star TE OJ Howard. The offensive line loses a couple of starters but should still be excellent. There are a lot of talented RBs awaiting their chance to make an impact and the likely starter is Damien Harris. Expect a lot of points this season from the Tide.

DEFENSE

There were plays to be made in the passing game against Alabama last season. The problem was that many of them never saw the light of day due to the Tide’s devastating pass rush – 53 sacks ranked 1st in the NCAA (3rd in sacks per game – 3.5). It also helped that you had no prayer of running the ball so Alabama knew you were going to take your shots down the field. This season there are only 5 returning starters to the unit but as usual there is a ton of talent. Every level of the defense has stars along with potential stars awaiting playing time. The depth is remarkable. Alabama allowed only 15 points per game on defense and this unit looks to be at least on par with the 2015 version on paper.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Alabama looks solid in the kicking game with both the PK and punter returning for duty. The Tide is going to miss electric punt returner Cyrus Jones who took FOUR punts back for TDs in 2015. We think that is an underrated loss for Alabama this season because he was a game changer.

 

MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10)          5.0

MEGALOCKS says…

Alabama is poised to make yet another run at a National Championship. Of course it is never easy to win coming into the season with a target on your back – but let’s face it – Alabama is used to that. The schedule is very difficult with some tough road games (Ole Miss, Arkansas, Tennessee, LSU) but there are also enough breathers in there to give them a chance to reset.

Overall, we give the CRIMSON TIDE a 5.0 ATS Value Rating (Average) this season. Alabama games are almost always the first games we handicap each week. Why? They are incredibly consistent and you can expect a top performance almost every game. Further, it is often clear when examining the opponent’s personnel if the Tide will ROLL or be in for a bit of a challenge. MEGALOCKS INSIDERS know that Alabama is 28-28 ATS the last four seasons making our 5.0 ATS value rating seem pretty reasonable. However, there are always about 3-4 great spots to back them every year despite being a very high-profile team. The point spreads are often too high but stay on the lookout for opportunities because when Alabama beats the number they are often the easiest wins you will have all year.

 

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