Alabama Crimson Tide 2018 NCAA Football Preview

College Football Predictions – Alabama Crimson Tide 2018 NCAA Football Preview

2017 Recap

Record – 13-1

ATS – 6-7-1

ROLL TIDE.

Alabama got all they could handle from Georgia in the College Football Playoff championship game and needed OT to pull out the 3-point win. That makes FIVE National Championships in the last nine years. Wow. Nick Saban enters his 12th season in Tuscaloosa and looks to make it an even half-dozen titles with the Crimson Tide. Are they still a cut above the rest of the SEC?

2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating

West Division – #1

SEC – #1

Alabama Crimson Tide 2018 Outlook

OFFENSE

It’s an embarrassment of riches all over the roster, and the QB position is no exception. Jalen Hurts had a stellar 17-1 (!) TD to INT ratio last season while rushing for 855 yards and 8 TDs (2nd team SEC). Back-up Tua Tagovailoa had to save the day in the title game and he DELIVERED with a comeback performance for the ages. It’s still unclear as we go to press exactly who will start under center, but we do know that Tagovailoa provides more spark to the passing attack. Alabama will ROLL regardless of the starting QB selection but we are interested to see how this all plays out.

The Crimson Tide have tallied 251 and 245 yards rushing per game over the past two seasons (#13, #12) and they should be excellent once again. They return a 1,000-yard back in Damien Harris (7.4 YPC LY) and boast a ton of young talent behind him. The offensive line is in great shape with four returning starters including 3rd team AA LT Jonah Williams. When they choose to MATRICULATE down the field in the passing game they will have to do so without star WR Calvin Ridley (#1 DC – Atlanta) who was the only player on ROLL TIDE to have more than 20 receptions in 2017 (!). There are a lot of highly-touted youngsters ready to step up, and some of them already started to emerge last season (Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs).

Alabama has averaged between 35 and 39 points per game in each of the past five seasons. We project them to hit the top end of that range in 2018.

DEFENSE

ROLL TIDE had injuries to contend with last season but still ended up allowing their fewest PPG (11.9) since 2012 when they yielded just 10.9 points per contest. The run defense “struggled” a bit more than usual given the aforementioned injuries, but they still finished ranked #1 in rush defense (3rd consecutive season allowing less than 100 yards rushing per game). They were also #1 in total defense and #2 in pass efficiency D. Ok, what about this year? Alabama needs to work in eight (!) new starters and have an entirely new starting crew in the LB and DB groups. The DL should be devastating with AA DE Raekwon Davis back and the depth chart is littered with highly-touted and talented youngsters ready to craft the next great Alabama D. They had to deal with just five returning starters in three of the past four seasons so a reload should go smoothly. The secondary is young and the unit we are most interested in evaluating over the first month or so. They will get a test week one vs Louisville.

It is not a super hot take, but we project another top-5 finish in total defense. The question becomes, can the better offenses on their schedule take advantage of the relative lack of experience compared to recent ROLL TIDE stop units? <grabs popcorn>

SPECIAL TEAMS

Alabama was pretty average in the return game last season and they must replace their excellent punter JK Scott (NFL – Green Bay) and their PK. They scooped up Temple grad transfer PK Austin Jones which could be a good “score” for the field goal unit.

Schedule Analysis

Overall – The schedule looks pretty easy to us. They catch Louisville in a down phase (?) and get to beat up on Arkansas St (scrappy, but we know what will happen), Louisiana and something called The Citadel in non-conference play. They only play four true road games and the single tough one among those appears to be the game at LSU. They get Auburn at home for the Iron Bowl. <pencils in 11+ wins>

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Louisiana (September 29). This game pops up in a Texas A&M / Arkansas sandwich and ROLL TIDE is sure to be laying about 5 touchdowns. Feels like a game they will have no serious interest in covering and/or there could be some SWEET BACKDOOR ACTION for those backing the Cajuns. Beware!

Season Win Total

Over 11 +115

Under 11 -135

MEGALOCKS says:

Yuck. Feels like a tough number (+115) to bet on an undefeated regular season. 11 wins seems safe for a push, but we would prefer to go over a number like 10.5 -150 (for example). Pass for now.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

Bryant-Denny stadium has a capacity of 101,821 making it the 8th largest non-racing stadium on the planet.

Did we mention Alabama has won five of the last nine National Titles?

MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.0

MEGALOCKS says:

Overall, we give the CRIMSON TIDE a 6.0 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.

Shockingly, we anticipate great things for Alabama this season. The offense should be better than last season, even with the departure of star WR Calvin Ridley. The defense is always lights out and we expect another excellent performance. They need to break in a new OC and DC but they have proven to be resilient when it comes to overcoming changes in the coaching staff. The SEC is not loaded with high-quality teams and it seems to us that ROLL TIDE will be able to scoot through the regular season and get to the SEC Title game.

Alabama is an impressive 57.7% (!) against the point spread over the past 10 seasons. That is truly impressive given the fact that they are essentially NEVER an underdog, and are usually laying double digits. You have to pay a premium to bet on these guys, but it often doesn’t matter. We recommend at least considering them for play every week, other than when they are laying enormous numbers.

Want more Alabama football ?

WEBSITE

http://www.rolltide.com/index.aspx?path=football

FORUM

Free

http://tidefans.com/forums/football

http://www.secrant.com/rant/alabama-sports/

http://alabama.247sports.com/Board/Alabama-Crimson-Tide-Message-Board-Forum-116

https://247sports.com/college/alabama/Board/Bama-Board-102338

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NEWS