Alabama Crimson Tide 2019 College Football Preview

College Football Predictions – Alabama Crimson Tide 2019 College Football Preview

2018 Recap

Record – 14-1

ATS – 8-7

“Don’t hate me because I’m beautiful” – Kelly LeBrock

We’re not sure who Kelly LeBrock is, but that kinda sums it up, doesn’t it?

ROLL TIDE had another phenomenal season running the table until they met up with arch-nemesis Clemson in the National Championship Game. The Tigers won in convincing fashion by a count of 44-16 and it marked the first time that Alabama had lost by more than 14 points during the Nick Saban era. Even though it was a MEGALOCKS 7,000,000 IMAGINARY TWITTER UNIT GAME OF THE CENTURY winner, we were still a bit shocked by the final score.

The show must go on. ROLL TIDE has a loaded roster and something to prove. You may not like them, or even hate them, but you MUST respect them.

Let’s go!

2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating

West Division – #1

SEC – #1

Alabama Crimson Tide 2019 Outlook

OFFENSE

Alabama moved like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE last season and posted a remarkable 45.6 PPG (#3 FBS) whilst pretty much destroying everything in their path until the SEC Championship Game. QB Tua Tagovailoa had a remarkable season throwing for almost 4,000 yards with an amazing 43-6 TD to INT ratio. And those stats were compiled despite the fact that he sat on the bench a LOT in the second half of games. It’s scary to think what kind of numbers could be racked up this season given that ROLL TIDE has one of the best WR units in college football. Jerry Jeudy is an exceptional talent (1,315, 19.3, 14 TD LY) and the top-three WRs (Jeudy, Waddle, Ruggs) combined for over 2,900 yards and an insane 32 TDs a season ago. All three men are back. The only departure of note is their fine TE Irv Smith.

There’s a bit of a reload at RB as the Tide move on without a pair of men that were NFL draft picks this spring. Damien Harris led the team in rushing last year (876, #3 DC Patriots) and underrated Josh Jacobs was taken in first round by the Raiders. Don’t worry! They are still loaded at RB with Najee Harris (6.7 YPC LY) back to assume the #1 role and highly-recruited freshman Trey Sanders just waiting to make his mark. And who knows what else they have hidden on the depth chart? The offensive line is a bit of a question mark as they need to replace NFL draft picks at C and LT. Just two starters return to the mix but there are several highly-regarded youngsters ready to dominate. It may take a few games to gel but we have confidence in their ability to get the right combination(s) working well together in 2019.

This is an elite offense that’s one of the best in college football. They may not score 46 PPG but it seems like 40+ is a certainty. <grabs popcorn>

DEFENSE

Alabama played solid defense last year but were just a slight notch below what we’re used to seeing from a statistical standpoint. They finished #3 in the SEC in scoring defense (18.1 PPG) and total defense (320 YPG) and allowed more than 100 YPG rushing (121) and over three yards-per-carry (3.5) for the first time since 2014. Their annual standard of excellence is pretty amazing when you consider all the talent they have lost to the NFL over the past number of years. What about 2019?

New DC Pete Golding has six returning starters and a lots of high-quality players to work with this year. ROLL TIDE loses a #1 NFL draft choice on the DL (Quinnen Williams – J-E-T-S, JETS JETS JETS) but reload like nobody’s business on an annual basis. With all the raw talent available to them it seems obvious they will boast another great defensive line. The LB group looks great with three returning starters including MLB Dylan Moses who led the team in tackles a season ago. The back-end of the defense was a bit soft last year as they allowed 22 TD passes (T9 SEC), although they did finish a respectable #4 in pass efficiency D in the conference. It remains to be seen how these guys hold up against the better QBs in the SEC and beyond. One final note. ROLL TIDE has bagged 40+ sacks in each of the past four seasons but lose their top-three sack men from the 2018 squad.

Alabama looks great on defense again. SHOCKER. We wouldn’t be surprised if they showed slight improvement in most statistical measures including YPG and PPG.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Trivia nugget. The Tide missed 9 XPs last year. Yup, that happened. Things look decent overall this season with Joseph Bulovas back to handle FGs (14/18 LY) and the dangerous Jaylen Waddle penciled in to handle PR duties (14.6, TD LY). They need to do a better job in the punting game and find a replacement for KR Josh Jacobs who averaged over 30 yards a pop in 2018.

Schedule Analysis

Overall – It should be smooth sailing other than a couple of tough games. The non-conference docket is a cakewalk (Duke, New Mexico St, Southern Miss, Western Carolina) and they avoid (again) Georgia and Florida from the SEC East. The big game with LSU is at home but they play the IRON BOWL on the road.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Southern Miss (September 21)

This is your classic SANDWICH GAME as it pops up between dates with conference foes Ole Miss and Texas A&M. Southern Miss is also a pretty good squad.

Season Win Total

Over 11 -170

Under 11 +150

MEGALOCKS says:

It’s another one of our corporate policies to avoid playing season win totals this high. It’s REALLY unlikely they lose two regular season games, so if forced to make a choice, we would side gently with the ‘over’.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

Alabama had not boasted a Heisman Trophy winner until 2009 (!!) when RB Mark Ingram took the award home. RB Derrick Henry followed suit in 2015.

Auburn won the first IRON BOWL by a score of 32-22 on February 22, 1893, in Birmingham.

MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Neutral

National Championship or bust, baby.

This version of ROLL TIDE looks mighty scary and are almost certain to make yet another playoff appearance. The offense will be devastating and the defense will be it’s usual killer self. There are a few potential landmines on the docket (at South Carolina, at Texas A&M, LSU, at Auburn) but nothing they can’t handle. They might trip up once, but the odds are still favorable we see them in Atlanta in December.

Alabama always has a target on their back and rarely offer perceived “value” from a point-spread perspective. It just doesn’t matter. Nick Saban has rattled off an excellent 56.5% record vs Vegas over the past ten years. Our standard mode of operation is to consider these guys for play almost every week and pounce when appropriate.

Want more Alabama football ?

WEBSITE

http://www.rolltide.com/index.aspx?path=football

FORUM

http://tidefans.com/forums/football

http://www.secrant.com/rant/alabama-sports/

http://alabama.247sports.com/Board/Alabama-Crimson-Tide-Message-Board-Forum-116

https://247sports.com/college/alabama/Board/Bama-Board-102338

https://alabama.forums.rivals.com/forums/talk-of-champions.16/

NEWS

http://www.rollbamaroll.com/

http://www.al.com/alabamafootball/