Alabama Crimson Tide 2023 College Football Preview
August 2, 2023
2022 Recap
Record – 11-2
ATS – 6-6-1
ROLL TIDE came into the season with reasonable expectations of winning another National Championship but they fell a bit short thanks to a pair of excruciating losses. They fell by three points at Tennessee in one of the most entertaining games of the year and dropped a one-point decision at LSU who went on to win the SEC West. Alabama finished on a strong note by whipping Kansas St in the Sugar Bowl (W 45-20) and we’re happy to report that was a 6000 unit MEGALOCKS CLIMATE CHANGE HOAX BUSTER POWER LOCK winner.
Alabama Crimson Tide 2023 Outlook
OFFENSE
It’s gonna be impossible to replace the great Bryce Young who put up monster numbers LY (3,328, 32-5 TD to INT) whilst putting the team on his back on several occasions. The QB situation is “in flux” to put it nicely, and it appears as tho ROLL TIDE will be going with either Notre Dame transfer Tyler Buchner (career 6-8 TD to INT) or LY’s back-up Jalen Milroe. Neither of those men have proven to be effective passers but at least Milroe is a devastating threat with his legs. Who knows, maybe highly-recruited specimen Ty Simpson gets a shot at the QB gig? It’s all a mystery right now. They’ve got a loaded RB unit as per usual but it won’t be easy to replace do-it-all RB Jahmyr Gibbs (926 rush, 44 receptions, 10 total TDs). The OL doesn’t appear dominant on paper as they have just over 40 career starts as a group so it’ll be interesting to see how the talented RBs perform. The WR room is CHOCK FULL of talented doods and they bring back their top-two options in Jermaine Burton and Ja’Corey Brooks who combined to catch 15 TD passes LY.
DEFENSE
The Tide played solid defense LY (#2 SEC scoring defense, #3 total defense) but they weren’t the KILLER unit that most people were expecting. ROLL TIDE returns just five starters this season and will be without their top-five (!) tacklers including superstar LB Will Anderson who’s off to the NFL (10 sacks, 12 QBH LY). Alabama is always stout up front but they’ll be without a pair of key contributors from LY’s squad and will hope that several young players are ready to take the next step. Sophomore NG Jaheim Oatis is one of those guys. The LB unit could be a problem area as they lost three (!) players to the NFL draft and will need Georgia transfer Trezmen Marshall and others to be major contributors right away. The CB situation is excellent and they’ve got one of the best in the business in KOOL-AID McKinstry (15 PBU) but the situation at safety is a bit murky. There’s a lot of raw talent on board but not as many proven commodities as you would like to see on a “Championship-level” stop unit.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Tide look really strong in this department. PK Will Reichard is coming off a fantastic season (22-28 FG, 64-64 XP), KOOL-AID McKinstry is a lethal PR (15.8), and James Burnip (42.3) provides a steady hand in the punting department.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – The non-conference assignments are a walk in the park with the important exception of the week two rematch with TEXAS (!). That’ll be must-see TV. The SEC schedule is favorable as they get the toughest games at home (Ole Miss, LSU, Tennessee) and don’t have to face the mighty Georgia Bulldogs.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Texas A&M (Oct 7)
This will be Alabama’s 3rd road game in four weeks and the Aggies have done well vs the Tide in their last two meetings. They SHOCKED the WORLD in 2021 (W 41-38) in Kyle Field and came THIS close to upsetting the apple cart again in 2022 (L 24-20).
Season Win Total
Market consensus August 2
Over 10.5 +120
Under 10.5 -140
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Under
It’s never easy to take an ‘under’ with this program but we can see them being in several close games over the course of the season. Eleven wins would be mighty impressive.
MEGAmazing Tidbit
Despite seemingly being the HUNTED since the beginning of time HC Nick Saban has a very impressive ATS mark of 120-96-4 (55.6%) during his legendary tenure with Alabama. Saban has been a solid bet in SEC action over that time horizon (78-61-3, 56.1%).
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
The Crimson Tide are in for a good fight in 2023. There are several teams in the SEC West nipping at their heels, whilst at the same time, the roster appears to have more holes than any recent edition of Alabama football. They’re obviously a legit contender to win the SEC but we think they’ll fall a bit short. We’ll call for nine or ten wins and an invite to a top-tier bowl game. In any event, ROLL TIDE, baby!