Alabama Crimson Tide 2024 College Football Preview
Posted July 23, 2024
2023 Recap
Record – 12-2
ATS – 9-5
You have to hand it to ROLL TIDE as they were upset at home in week two when Texas came to town (L 34-24) but then they rattled off ten (!) consecutive regular season wins. After beating Auburn in impossibly dramatic fashion in the Iron Bowl they did the unthinkable and upset Georgia in the SEC Championship (W 27-24). Yup, they were off to the CFP yet again. Michigan and Alabama treated us to an entertaining Rose Bowl but the Wolverines emerged victorious (W 27-20, OT) in what turned out to be Nick Saban’s final game.
New HC Kalen DeBoer comes over from Washington fresh off a trip to the National Championship Game. Can he get Alabama back on top of the mountain in year one?
Alabama Crimson Tide 2024 Outlook
OFFENSE
Alabama’s offense took a nose dive in terms of point production LY (34 PPG, 41 in 2022) and YPG (477 to 393) and the main culprit was disgusting OL play (49 sacks allowed, #129 FBS). QB Jalen Milroe did a fine job under the circumstances (23-6 TD to INT, 12 rush TD) and he’s back to lead the way in 2024. We’re not in love with the collection of WR/TEs as the top three weapons are gone from the 2023 team. Last year’s #3 WR Kobe Prentice returns and they’ve added Washington St transfer Germie Bernard to the mix, but he’s not a #1 (or maybe even #2) option. The Tide will require some of highly-recruited youngsters to step up such as Emmanuel Henderson and Ryan Williams. The Tide also lose their top-two RBs (combined 1,450 yards, 13 TDs) and once again they’ll need some unproven, yet supremely talented specimens to GIT R DONE. It’ll almost certainly be a committee approach and Justice Haynes and Jam Miller have the potential to become a very productive combo. The offensive line will be much better this season as they return a pair of legit SEC studs (Booker, Proctor) and add center Parker Brailsford from Washington who earned Frosh AA honors in 2023. We look for Alabama to make slight improvement on offense but we don’t think they’ve got elite scoring potential.
DEFENSE
ROLL TIDE has been very consistent on defense over the last number of seasons as they’ve allowed between 18 and 20 PPG every year from 2018 to 2023 (LY, 19.0). It might be a challenge to fit into that range in 2024 as they lost SIX defensive players to the NFL Draft including their top-three (!) sack producers (26), and their all-Galaxy safety Caleb Downs is now with THE Ohio State University. The DL is still one of the best in the SEC as it’s CHOCK FULL of talent, particularly on the inside, but where are the elite PENETRATORS? The LB corps will be fine with the return of Deontae Lawson (#2 tackles, 5.5 TFL) and Jihaad Campbell (#3 tackles) but once again, the unit appears to lack a serious pass rushing demon. The secondary is probably the weakest level of the stop unit as it was decimated by departures. They’ll rely on returning safety Malachi Moore and a handful of transfer portal specimens to mold into a decent group. Now, as ALWAYS with Alabama, you have to respect that there are literally buckets of highly-recruited guys waiting for their chance to shine. Who knows, maybe there is serious star power waiting to come to the surface? <grabs popcorn>
SPECIAL TEAMS
Yes, guy.
The Tide have one of the best kicking tandems in the country in punter James Burnip (42.7 net) and devastating PK Graham Nicholson who won the Lou Groza Award with Miami Ohio LY (27/28 FG, 10/11 from 40+). Also note that Kendrick Law did a good job on KR LY (17, 23.8).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – The non-conference schedule should result in four wins but WKU and USF aren’t complete STIFFS and the road game at Wisconsin could be a bit tougher than expected. The set of SEC assignments is rough as they’ve got road games at Tennessee, LSU, and Oklahoma. The good news is that they have the yuuuge battle with Georgia at home in Tuscaloosa. GET CHO POPCONE for that one!
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – USF (Sept 7)
We don’t believe we’ll have interest in laying a bunch of points in this game as the Bulls are one of the most explosive teams in the Group of Five with an electric dual-threat QB. Also be aware that Alabama has the trip to Wisconsin up next. The Bulls are very capable of engaging in some SWEET BACK DOOR ACTION and covering the spread late in the game.
Season Win Total
Market consensus July 23
Over 9.5 +105
Under 9.5 -125
MEGALOCKS says:
No leanage
This doesn’t have the look of an elite team on paper but 10-2 is very doable. If a ‘9’ pops up in the -150/-160 range we’d be very tempted to hit the ‘over’ but we don’t see that happening.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
HC Kalen DeBoer is 11-1-1 ATS (!) in non-conference action (Fresno St, Washington).
ROLL TIDE has rattled off a completely insane 16 (!) consecutive double-digit winning campaigns.
Hat tip to the great NICK SABAN who led the Crimson Tide to six (!) National Championships.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
It’s going to be really strange watching Alabama take the field without legendary head coach Nick Saban. The good news is that the Tide replaced an all-time great with one of the brightest minds in college football in Kalen DeBoer. There’s a lot of talent on both sides of the football but this team doesn’t have the look of a KILLER. We view this version of Alabama football as a legit playoff-caliber team but a slight notch below teams like Georgia and Ohio St. We give them a legit shot to find their way back to the SEC Championship Game and view them as one of the more interesting LIVE LONGSHOTS to win it all. Would you wanna face these guys in a CFP game?
As always, ROLL TIDE!