Alabama vs Duke – College Football Predictions
The Game
ROLL TIDE, baby.
Nick Saban and the boys have a chip on their shoulder and tons of talent back in the mix. Last year’s loss to Clemson in the National Championship Game (L 44-16) was a kick in the teeth and there’s no doubt they will be focused from day one. Duke is a solid squad that has only booked one losing season in the last six years under the tutelage of their excellent HC David Cutcliffe.
Let’s get it on!
The Details
ROLL TIDE -33.5 Duke (57.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – ROLL TIDE -31
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: ROLL TIDE 45.5 Duke 12
The Match-Up:
ROLL TIDE offense vs Duke defense
We can’t wait to see TUA go to work again. Despite making rare appearances in second halves of ball games LY he threw for almost 4,000 (!) yards and posted an impossible 43-6 TD to INT mark. This season? ROLL TIDE has arguably the best WR unit in all of college football and we expect them to destroy opposing defenses that are not able to defend the pass at an acceptable level. The good news for Duke is that they are well coached and have a very good secondary. They are overmatched from a talent perspective but ROLL TIDE will not be able to just roll their helmets out there and score 70 points. The rushing attack? Note that injuries (Trey Sanders) and suspensions (Najee Harris – out first half) have taken their toll on ROLL TIDE before the season kicks off. Duke returns their entire starting DL and can defend the pass. It feels like ROLL TIDE will get their points but not at the rate you might expect. <grabs popcorn>
Duke offense vs ROLL TIDE defense
It’s not great news, yo. The Blue Devils lose a first round NFL DC at QB (Danny Dimes) and a ton of their production at WR. It’s not all doom and gloom as they still have a capable senior QB (Quentin Harris), three returning starters on the OL, and a fine 1-2 punch at RB who combined for over 1,200 yards rushing and 10 TDs on the ground a season ago. That’s all well and good, but let’s talk about facing the ROLL TIDE defense. They were “disappointing” by their standards last year allowing 18.1 PPG and over 100 YPG on the ground for the first time since 2014. It now appears as though last year’s leading tackler and star MLB Dylan Moses has been lost for the season due to injury. There is no doubt that ROLL TIDE is chock full of talent but it will be interesting so see how the depth steps up AND if they have an itchy trigger-finger when it comes to taking guys out of the game early.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
ROLL TIDE is just 2-13 ATS in their last 15 games as 30-point favorites in non-conference play….You know we usually throw TREND GUY to the curb but that’s only because he/she/it doesn’t know how to apply trends from a handicapping perspective…..This feels like a tough angle to ignore….Duke has been one of the best teams in college football ATS under HC Cutcliffe and they are especially SPICY as underdogs.
Summary
It feels like too many points BUT one must respect the power of ROLL TIDE. Alabama has crushed the opposition in their last four season openers, but the question remains, can they rip a pretty good ACC team to pieces in week one? And are they motivated to do so?
Conclusion
Official play: None yet. Stay tuned.
Side: Lean to Duke.
Total: No opinion.
Note:
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game. Nothing more. < but always stay tuned for updates >
‘Slight lean’ implies we are almost certain to avoid the game and/or total from a betting standpoint even for ‘small potatoes’. We give an opinion for those who need to get down and want advice.