College Football Predictions – Appalachian St Mountaineers 2018 NCAA Football Preview
2017 Recap
Record – 9-4
ATS – 6-7
The Mountaineers took a bit of a licking but kept on ticking. They were sitting at 5-4 after a road loss to ULM but dominated down the stretch and grabbed a share of the Sun Belt title. They outscored their Sun Belt foes 121-30 (!) in the final three regular season games and then destroyed a really good Toledo team in the Dollar General Bowl (34-0) (!).
Let’s see how things are shaping up for the Mountaineers in 2018.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #2
Sun Belt – #3
Appalachian St Mountaineers 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Mountaineers move on without four-year starter Taylor Lamb who finished his career as the school’s 3rd all-time leading passer (9,786). It appears as though the starting QB gig will go to sophomore Zac Thomas who only attempted 10 passes in 2017. Lamb was very efficient but the hope is that Thomas will be able to do a better job of stretching the field. The WR corps is very talented and will enjoy the infusion of a pair of Kansas St transfers.
Appalachian St will rely upon their excellent RB Jalin Moore (1st Team Sun Belt, 1,037, 12 rushing TD LY) to carry the bulk of the load but they also have depth behind him including Marcus Williams (500, 5.2, 2 TD) and some intriguing youngsters. The offensive line did a fine job last year (224 YPG rushing, just 8 sacks allowed) and bring back three starters including 1st Team Sun Belt honoree LT Victor Johnson.
The Mountaineers were very balanced last season (#36 rushing, #39 passing) and should be able to stay that way this year, even with a new starting QB.
DEFENSE
Appalachian St has been solid on defense the past four seasons never allowing more than 350 YPG (2012 – 348). This year they only return five starters to the stop unit and that is the fewest total since 2014 (6). The DL should be fine but we worry about the loss of their excellent LB and leading tackler Eric Boggs (1st Team Sun Belt) who was crushing and killing when not peppering balls off the Green Monster. The secondary is stacked with TWO 1st Team Sun Belt CBs (Clifton Duck, Tae Hayes) who combined for 10 INTs and 18 PBUs in 2017.
The defense should be solid provided they can continue to apply pressure to opposing QBs (38 sacks LY – #3 Sun Belt in sacks per game).
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Mountaineers FG kicking was adequate last season (17/24) and both kickers are back this year. They also have continuity at P and in the PR unit.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s not too bad. Sure, the opener against Penn St will not be a treat, but they will be able to win any of their other games.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Texas St (November 10). This will be their 3rd consecutive road game and 4th game away from home in a span of five conference tilts. Last season the Mountaineers only won 20-13 (at Texas St) despite being 22-point favorites.
Season Win Total
Over 8.5 +115
Under 8.5 -145
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over. Taking a bit of plus money to lose three games or less seems reasonable. It might come down to their final two games (Georgia St, Troy) but both of those contests are in Boone.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Mack Brown (ya, that Mack Brown) coached Appalachian St to a 6-5 record in 1983.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the MOUNTAINEERS a 5.0 ATS Value Rating (Average) this season.
They have quite the thing going on in Boone, NC!
Appalachian St has won 30 games over the past three seasons and have established themselves as an annual contender. Now to be fair, it will be challenging to maintain excellence with a new starting QB, but there is enough talent on the roster for us to feel pretty good about their prospects in 2018.
The million-dollar question is what about the point-spread prospects? HC Scott Satterfield has essentially a .500 mark ATS during his tenure including a 13-13 record vs Vegas over the past two years. They will have to do most of the heavy lifting for bettors this season as they figure to be favored in the vast majority of their games. It’s probably best to pick your spots with these guys.
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