Arizona at Utah – College Football Predictions
The Game
It’s time for some SWEET PAC-12 ACTION Friday night when Arizona travels to Salt Lake City to take on the Utes. Both teams are still in the PAC-12 South hunt with plenty of important games to play. The bad news for Utah is that they already have a pair of conference losses (to North division teams) so will almost certainly need to win all of their South division games to get to the conference title game. Arizona used a pair of pick-sixes to get past Cal last week whilst the Utes managed to lay a beating on Stanford who were without star RB Bryce Love.
The Details
Utah -13.5 Arizona (51.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Utah -11
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Utah 32.5 Arizona 19
The Match-Up:
Arizona offense vs Utah defense
It certainly isn’t the way they drew things up at the start of the season, but the Wildcats are sitting at 3-3 whilst QB Khalil Tate has only managed to rush for 109 net yards (1,411, 12 TD LY). It might be the “ankle injury”. It might be the play-calling. It’s just really hard to know. What we DO know is that the offense has been struggling against good defenses this season (330, 265 yards L2W vs USC and Cal) and now face the #1 D in the PAC-12 in terms of yards per play allowed (4.45). Utah should be able to bottle up RB JJ Taylor (600, 5.8) and force a relatively inaccurate passer (54%) to beat them from the pocket. The Cats will need to find a couple of big plays in the passing game, maybe pop a big one in the run game and win the turnover battle to exceed their implied point total of 19.
Utah offense vs Arizona defense
The Utes displayed some good balance last week in the road win over Stanford rushing for 222 yards and passing for 199. We worry about the depth of skill players on the offense as things would likely completely dry up without either of their two excellent offensive players (QB Tyler Huntley, RB Zack Moss). Moss is well on his way to a 1,000-yard season on the ground but the passing game could use just a bit more spice (11 yards per reception as a team). The Arizona defense is ranked #106 vs the run and #110 on 3rd downs. That should allow Utah to get done whatever they need to get done. Special teams will likely set up some short fields. The Cats will need to find a way to force 2-3 turnovers to stay in this one.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Utah has dealt with the #4 schedule in the FBS (Arizona #73)…….The Cats are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road tests.
Summary
Our ratings say that the point spread may be a bit high but we love the match-up for the Utes. Arizona has had trouble on offense the past two weeks and will almost certainly be smothered by the Utah defense. Turnovers are the great equalizer so Utah just needs to play a relatively clean game to cover the number.
Conclusion
Official play: None yet.
Side: Lean to Utah.
Total: Slight lean to the under.
Note:
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game. Nothing more. < but always stay tuned for updates >
‘Slight lean’ implies we are almost certain to avoid the game and/or total from a betting standpoint even for ‘small potatoes’. We give an opinion for those who need to get down and want advice.