Arizona St Sun Devils 2016 NCAA Football Preview
ARIZONA ST SUN DEVILS
PAC-12 Conference – North Division
2015 Record – 6-7
ATS – 6-7
2016 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating Rank
South Division #4 (Tie)
Conference #9 (Tie)
2015 Recap
After racking up 28 wins in his first three seasons at Arizona St, HC Todd Graham had to settle for watching his team struggle to a 6-7 mark. While it is true that there were a couple of tough losses in there, the reality is that they only had a couple of wins that you might consider “decent”. They spanked UCLA on the road seemingly out of nowhere and had a late-season victory over Washington at home.
The Sun Devils have made a bowl game each of the last four seasons with Graham as HC but many fans feel like they should have accomplished more. Personally, we feel that the past four years have been pretty good compared to the 2008-2011 stretch when they went 21-28.
2016 Preview
OFFENSE
Arizona St will start fresh at QB this season and hope to get similar production to what Mike Bercovici provided last season. He threw for over 3,800 yards and 30 TDs while only being picked off 9 times in 531 attempts. Heading into August, it appears that either reshirt freshman Brady White or sophomore Manny Wilkins will get the job. MEGALOCKS CAMP INSIDERS alerted us that both guys essentially split the reps on day one and this will be an interesting competition to follow.
The strength of the offense appears to be at RB where the combination of Demario Richard and Kalen Ballage should be an excellent 1-2 punch. They lose their #1 WR from last season Devin Lucien but appear to have good depth and also feature a fine receiving tight end in Kody Kohl (368, 11.5, 4 TD in 2015).
The offense has been very good ever since Todd Graham arrived on the scene, but we are a bit concerned about this unit due to the unknown quantities at QB and the retooled offensive line that only returns ONE starter from last year’s squad. Arizona St has given up a lot of sacks the past four seasons (39, 39, 41, 38) and it is probably not going to get better this season even if they find improved mobility at QB. They have found a way to get the ground attack going no matter what recently, and the offensive line does have some size, so it is not impossible to think that they could be a pleasant surprise.
DEFENSE
Whatever is in the water in Tempe, it really helps the pass rush. The Sun Devils bring a lot of pressure and have ranked very high in the FBS rankings the last four seasons (1st, 13th, 17th, 2nd). The not-so-great news is that the defense has been getting progressively worse in terms of yards allowed per game. 351 to 372 to 417 to 464. Last season they were regularly incinerated by opposing QBs despite the excellent pass rush.
Six starters return on defense including the two leading tacklers from 2015. They do lose the FBS leader in tackles for loss per game in Antonio Longino (tied with D Fields, S Lawson) but LB Salamo Fiso was also in the top 10 and he is back in 2016. This defense has the makings of another group that gets after the passer but still gets torched by good QBs.
SPECIAL TEAMS
PK Zane Gonzalez did a great job in 2015 hitting 26/31 field goals from inside 50 yards. Matt Haack also returns to handle the punting duties and the Sun Devils were 3rd in net punting in the PAC 12 last season. The return game also looks to be in good shape, and that pretty much sums it up. Solid all around.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.0
MEGALOCKS says:
The schedule sets up pretty well this season. They start off with four very winnable games in September before their first real test at USC in week five. Some folks may think Todd Graham is on the hot seat, and while that may be the case, he has proven he can win here and this just might be the start of another multi-year roll if the QB situation works out favorably.
Overall, we give the SUN DEVILS a 5.0 ATS Value Rating (Average) this season. There is definitely upside here. As you probably know by now, we like to take a wait and see approach when teams start the season with inexperience at the QB position. The offensive line is also a concern. What balances things out for us is that this uncertainty may create a bit of value as many people will be thinking the same thing. If we had a better idea of how the QB situation will shake out we might have been more aggressive with our rating. For now we will make a neutral call.
Want more Arizona St Football ?
Website
http://www.thesundevils.com/index.aspx?path=football
Forum
http://www.scout.com/college/arizona-state/forums/1679-devils-inferno
http://www.cactusranch.com/devils/msgboard.html
News
http://bleacherreport.com/arizona-state-football
http://www.azcentral.com/sports/asu-sun-devils/
http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/arizona-st-sun-devils
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