Arizona Wildcats 2016 NCAA Football Preview
ARIZONA WILDCATS
PAC-12 Conference – North Division
2015 Record – 7-6
ATS – 5-8
2016 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating Rank
South Division #4 (Tie)
Conference #8 (Tie)
2015 Recap
Arizona started out very well in three tune-up games winning by a combined score of 163-65. They then proceeded to struggle through the majority of the PAC 12 schedule until a late season win vs Utah. Rich Rodriguez now has a 33-20 record with the Wildcats including a 3-1 mark in bowl games with the only loss coming against Boise St.
2016 Preview
OFFENSE
Scoring points has not been a problem since Rich Rodriguez arrived. That should continue this season as QB Anu Solomon returns for his third season, and if need be, coaches are confident that Brandon Dawkins can do a fine job as he got a taste of experience last year. There is excitement about the longer-term potential of freshman Khalil Tate but it is unclear whether or not he will redshirt this season.
RB Nick Wilson was banged up in 2015 but still managed to rush for 729 yards and 8 TDs. Wilson had a big year in 2014 rushing for almost 1,400 yards and 16 TDs so we expect a fine season out of him barring an injury. The Wildcats lose their top 2 WRs but have enough experience and talent to tally the numbers we are used to seeing.
Arizona will play the season with heavy hearts after the unexpected passing of center Zach Hemmila. They return 3 starters to the unit and should pave the way for another solid season running the football. However, it would be nice to clean up the sacks allowed (71 last two seasons combined).
DEFENSE
Arizona has not allowed less than 400 yards per game in Rich Rod’s tenure at Arizona, and if they ever want to reach their potential as a program, they have to figure out a way to play some defense. New DC Marcel Yates comes over from Boise St where he did a great job and we think he can make a big difference this season given the talent on hand.
Eight starters return on defense and all of them are in their junior or senior seasons. It is unclear if there is a true “star” in the unit but the combination of experience and a new DC makes us believe the Wildcats will have an improved stop unit in 2016. They are learning a completely new scheme but it promises to be a lot more aggressive and deceptive.
SPECIAL TEAMS
This is a significant concern. Last year’s kicking specialists P Drew Riggleman and K Casey Skowron were very reliable and this season the Wildcats need to replace both of them. The return game is in good hands.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.5
MEGALOCKS says:
This feels like a sleeper team to us, but then again, Rich Rodriguez’ teams have an annoying habit of under-performing expectations. They appear set on offense. It will all depend on how quickly they adjust to the new scheme on defense. Generating more turnovers (10th in PAC 12 last season; -4 in turnover margin overall) will help the Wildcats out immensely.
Overall, we give the WILDCATS a 6.5 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season. Arizona has a 25-28 mark ATS in the Rich Rod era which goes to show you what the combination of “high-profile head coach”, “high expectations” and “bad defense” can do to your performance against the point spread. It is with a degree of caution that we endorse the Wildcats as a potential sleeper and money maker in 2016.
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News
http://tucson.com/sports/arizonawildcats/
http://bleacherreport.com/arizona-wildcats-football
http://www.azcentral.com/sports/ua-wildcats/
http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/arizona-wildcats
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