College Football Predictions – Arizona Wildcats 2018 NCAA Football Preview
2017 Recap
Record – 7-6
ATS – 5-7-1
The Wildcats had a decent season by taking down essentially all of their “winnable games”. They just could not get over the hump and finished with a seven-win season culminating in a tough loss to Purdue in the Foster Farms Bowl (L 38-35). The best news was the emergence of star QB Khalil Tate who is a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate heading into the season. Oh, and Kevin Sumlin is the new head coach. Things are looking up in Tuscon.
Let’s take a look at the potential for this season’s squad.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
South Division – #3
PAC 12 – #6
Arizona Wildcats 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
Here we go! How much damage can KHALIL FOOTBALL do at QB if he stays healthy for an entire season? Last year he ran for over 1,400 yards and 12 TDs at an impossible 9.2 (!) yards a pop. Tate also had a fine 14-9 TD to INT ratio and completed 62% of his passes. There is every reason to expect him to have a monster season, even taking into account the fact that defenses will have a better idea of how to control him after watching tape during the off-season. Leading rusher JJ Taylor (847, 5 TD LY) is back but there is no proven depth at RB. We worry a bit about the offensive line that just returns a pair of starters after having such an amazing 2017 campaign (#1 FBS – 6.6 YPC). An incredibly mobile QB can really help out the offensive line so hopefully Tate can mask any shortcomings in the OL, of course without getting himself smoked too many times. When Tate chooses to MATRICULATE in the passing game he will enjoy having his top-two targets from last year’s team available (11 TDs combined) as well as TE Bryce Wolma who hauled in 28 passes in 2017.
Arizona was far and away the most potent offense in the PAC 12 last season (#1 PAC 12 scoring offense – 41.3) and will still easily remain near the top. A new HC, a less experienced OL and lack of depth at QB give us some pause.
DEFENSE
The Wildcats were #10 in the PAC 12 in total defense last season, and in fact, they have allowed 450+ yards per contest in each of the past four seasons. Arizona will have no excuses this year as they return nine of their top eleven tacklers from the 2017 stop unit and have nine returning starters overall. Every level of the defense should improve under the watch of DC Marcel Yates. There is size on the DL, LB Colin Schooler was the Cats’ #2 tackler and was named PAC 12 Frosh DPOY and the secondary returns all four starters (19 INT LY – #1 PAC 12). If they can maintain the same kind of pressure on opposing QBs (30 sacks LY) this defense will take a big move forward. <grabs popcorn>
SPECIAL TEAMS
It’s a bit of a mixed bag. Arizona’s punting was a DUMPSTER FIRE last season as they ranked dead last in the FBS in net punting (29.4 net ??). FG kicking should not be a major issue and PR Shun Brown took a pair to the HOUSE last season.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It shapes up pretty nicely. Their out-of-conference docket is not too harsh (BYU, at Houston, Southern Utah) and they only have four conference road games. They also avoid Washington AND Stanford from the PAC 12 North.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – California (Oct 6). This match-up falls between a pair of yuuuuuge south division showdowns (USC, Utah).
Season Win Total
Over 7.5 -145
Under 7.5 +115
MEGALOCKS says:
Neutral stance at the moment. We think the Cats have a lot of potential this season but the 7.5 win total at a high price (-145) is something we need to let simmer in our brains for a while before deciding on the course of action.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Kevin Sumlin has a record of 86-43 as a head coach. Yup, that’s pretty good.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the WILDCATS a 5.5 ATS Value Rating (Slightly Above Average) this season.
There is a lot of excitement building and why not? They have an emerging superstar at QB, an improved defense and a fine head coach. From a betting perspective, our DEEP PAC 12 INSIDERS believe that this will be a HOT team with DEGENERATE NATION and that will likely make it difficult to find value vs the point spread on a weekly basis. Kevin Sumlin is 48-53-1 (47.5%) ATS since 2010. Pick your spots vs Vegas, but most importantly, enjoy watching their games!
Want more Arizona Football ?
WEBSITE
http://www.arizonawildcats.com/index.aspx?path=football
FORUM
Free
http://www.scout.com/college/arizona/forums/1669-wildcat-football
http://beardownwildcats.com/viewforum.php?f=9&sid=3c4d41d18a44e8bc07098e58bb11360a
NEWS
http://tucson.com/sports/arizonawildcats/
http://www.wildcat.arizona.edu/section/sports
http://bleacherreport.com/arizona-wildcats-football
http://www.azcentral.com/sports/ua-wildcats/
TWITTER
Hashtag – #BearDown
Accounts to follow
https://twitter.com/ArizonaFBall