Arizona Wildcats 2024 College Football Preview
Posted July 8, 2024
2023 Recap
Record – 10-3
ATS – 11-2
Yes, guy.
The Wildcats were one of the best surprises of the 2023 college football season and they played well from start to finish. We all know about their seven-game winning streak to end the season but how about the three losses early on? The Cats lost on the road to Mississippi St in OT, fell to the National Championship Game runner-up Washington by seven points, and lost in 3OT at USC. If our aunt had nuts she’d be our uncle, BUT it isn’t crazy to say that Arizona played well enough to go 13-0 last year.
Can new HC Brent Brennan keep things rolling in their transition to the Big 12?
Arizona Wildcats 2024 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Wildcats’ offense really took off last season when QB Noah Fifita grabbed the reins (25-6 TD to INT) and they finished the year averaging 35 PPG (#18 FBS) and 448 YPG (#20). Fifita is back to lead the offense and while he’ll be glad to have superstar WR Tetairoa McMillan back for duty (1,402, 10 TD) he’ll definitely miss his #2 and #3 options (WR Cowing, TE McLachlan) who are both off to the NFL. Arizona loses their top-three (!) RBs but they did a great job in the portal by snagging the impossibly-productive Jacory Croskey-Merritt from New Mexico (1,190, 17 TD LY) and San Jose St’s #2 rusher Quali Conley (842, 9 TD). Four starters return up front but they lost all-Galaxy LT Jordan Morgan in the first round of the NFL Draft. There are plenty of talented pieces on offense but the production might drop just a tick.
DEFENSE
Arizona’s stop unit had one of the most dramatic improvements imaginable LY as they went from allowing 37 PPG in 2022 (#126) to a mere 21 PPG (#30). The main reason for the stout performance a season ago was the DL but they’ll need to build an entirely new starting front this year and hope that a rotation of doods can GIT R DONE. DE Tre Smith was a good pickup from San Jose St (6.5 sacks LY) and don’t sleep on monster UC Davis transfer DT Chubba Ma’ae. The LB corps is solid and is led by #1 tackler Jacob Manu (9.5 TFL) and they’ve got three really talented pieces on the back end in CB Tacrio Davis (15 PBU), and safeties Dalton Johnson and Gunner Maldonado. This has the look of a good, but not great defense that’ll be down a notch from LY.
SPECIAL TEAMS
It’s nice to have PK Tyler Loop back in the fold (19/24 FG LY) but they’ll be working in a new punter and need to find productive return men.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – The Cats start with two MORTAL LOCKS (New Mexico, Northern Arizona) but things will get much more difficult after their 2-0 start. The road schedule is GRUESOME (Kansas St, Utah, UCF, TCU) but they could come close to running the table at home.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at UCF (Nov 2)
This is a rare trip into the Eastern Time Zone for the Wildcats and the UCF rushing attack will severely test the rebuilt DL.
Season Win Total
Market consensus July 8
Over 7.5 -115
Under 7.5 -115
MEGALOCKS says:
No leanage.
25 of our 27 sets of power ratings call for a seven or eight win season. We have a slight preference for ‘over 7.5’ but also have a wee leanage to ‘under 8’. Make sure you shop around depending on how you want to play it.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Last year Arizona posted just their second double-digit winning season this century (2014, 10-4).
HC Brent Brennan did a good job vs the point spread during his tenure with San Jose St (44-37-1, 54%). Brennan was especially proficient in conference play (32-22-1, 59%).
Tucson is expecting a high of 112 degrees today. Before you demented “climate change” activists start gluing yourselves to random sculptures and acting like crazed monkeys, keep in mind that it’s MID-JULY in the DESERT.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
Last season was a fun ride for Wildcats fans and it’s been quite a while since they’ve watched their team lose a football game. Things look pretty good on both sides of the football but there are a still a few question marks (OL, WR2, DL) that make us wonder if they can compete for a Big 12 title this year. The road schedule looks a bit too daunting so we’ll call for seven or eight wins and another entertaining campaign from Arizona football. Bear Down!