Arkansas Razorbacks 2018 NCAA Football Preview

College Football Predictions – Arkansas Razorbacks 2018 NCAA Football Preview

2017 Recap

Record – 4-8

ATS – 4-7-1

Yuck.

The Hogs struggled last season with a mark of 4-8 and that meant the end of the Bret Bielema experiment at Arkansas. When you look back at the 2017 campaign, it just seems wrong that the only wins were vs powerhouses Florida A&M, New Mexico St, Ole Miss and Coastal Carolina. Last year marked the third time in the past six seasons that Arkansas had four or fewer wins. New HC Chad Morris has work to do but there is definitely talent on the roster. Let’s go!

2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating

West Division – #7

SEC – Tied #11

Arkansas Razorbacks 2018 Outlook

OFFENSE

This will be the first time in a while that we do not get an “Allen” at QB. Chad Morris and new OC Joe Craddock will add more tempo and (hopefully) explosiveness to an offense that generated just 28.8 points and 373 yards per game in 2017. Those were the worst marks since the 2013 season. There appears to be potential at QB with Cole Kelley and Ty Storey both still in the mix for the starting gig. Almost the entire WR and TE groups return and we are excited to see how quickly the Hogs can become dangerous on offense. The OL yielded 35 (!) sacks for the 2nd straight season and that needs to get cleaned up. There are four returning starters but they do lose ALL-WORLD C Frank Ragnow (#1 NFL DC – Detroit). We like the look of the running back unit in terms of depth as Devwah Whaley and Chase Hayden combined for almost 900 yards and 11 TDs last year, and they have some talented youngsters on the depth chart. We don’t expect them to go nuts on the scoreboard but we do see them topping 30 points per game, especially if they can uncover a star at WR.

DEFENSE

Arkansas allowed the most points in school history last season (!) (36.2) whilst finishing last in the SEC in sacks and TFL. New DC John Chavis has excellent SEC pedigree and will need to work some magic. The good news is that they return eight starters and have a lot of returning experience, especially at DL and LB. The improved coaching and switch to a 4-3 scheme should help the Hogs get much more PENETRATION and cause more problems for opposing offenses. It’s unclear if there are any stars to rely upon, but we like the fact they bring back their four leading tacklers including a pair of LBs that recorded 100 tackles each in 2017 (De’Jon Harris, Dre Greenlaw). Our biggest concern is the CB situation but hopefully they can do a reasonable job with more help from the pass rush. We do not expect miracles but can see a TD or so improvement from the 2017 DEBACLE.

SPECIAL TEAMS

We like how things are shaping up. PK Connor Limpert was 8/9 on FG attempts last season and KR De’Vion Warren averaged over 26 yards per return and took one to the house.

Schedule Analysis

Overall – The docket looks very manageable. There is no reason to think they can’t start off the campaign with three wins, although games against Colorado St and North Texas are not free squares. They have a three game stretch later on in the season with consecutive games vs Ole Miss, Tulsa and Vanderbilt. Not a Murderers’ row.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – North Texas (September 15). This comes after a rare road game vs a non-power 5 team (Colorado St) and before the start of SEC play (at Auburn). North Texas can light it up and we would be leery of laying the wood in this match-up.

Season Win Total

Over 5.5 -130

Under 5.5 +100

MEGALOCKS says:

Strong lean to the over. As noted above, there are a number of winnable games this season, and it feels like the worst-case scenario is a 5-6 record heading into the season finale at Missouri.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

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Razorbacks!

Arkansas has an all-time record of 701-475-40 (.593) but just a 15-24-3 record (.393) record in bowl games.

MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.0

MEGALOCKS says:

Overall, we give the RAZORBACKS a 6.0 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.

There is truly only one way to go, and that is up. The question becomes, how quickly can Chad Morris get the program to an acceptable level of performance? There are lots of changes to deal with (HC, OC, DC, QB) but one cannot ignore the improvement made in the coaching department and experience on the roster (17 returning starters). GLASS HALF-EMPTY GUY could argue it means nothing returning that much experience when they were so bad in 2017, but there is hope and energy around the program heading into the season. A manageable schedule and low expectations should help these guys have a winning season vs the point spread.

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