Arkansas Razorbacks 2024 College Football Preview
Posted July 18, 2024
2023 Recap
Record – 4-8
ATS – 5-7
WOO PIG started out by dusting a pair of TOMATO CANS as expected (Western Carolina, Kent St), but what fans didn’t expect was a disgusting six-game losing streak that included defeats at the hands of BYU and Mississippi St (L 7-3, #SNOTBUBBLER). Arkansas kept digging and won two of their final four games and that ‘hot streak’ including a thrilling OT win in the SWAMP vs the Gators. When it was all said and done, the Razorbacks sputtered to a record of 4-8, and that gave fans some haunting memories of some really crappy times not so long ago.
Can HC Sam Pittman turn the ship around in 2024?
Arkansas Razorbacks 2024 Outlook
OFFENSE
The offense was horrendous LY (327 YPG, 2nd worst SEC) and the main culprit was a rushing attack that took a major dive in production (139 YPG; 237,228 previous two years). The biggest story with WOO PIG football heading into the 2024 season relates to moving on from all-time leading passer KJ Jefferson and the insertion of talented specimen Taylen Green from Boise St. Green has a mediocre 24-15 career TD to INT mark which makes our alarm bells go RINGY DINGY DINGY but he’s very mobile (70+ yard rushing TD in each of L2Y) and comparable to what KJ Jefferson brought to the table from a physical standpoint. The addition of Utah’s leading rusher Ja’Quinden Jackson (797, 4 TD LY) was a nice move but we’re not sure about the guys behind him on the depth chart. Green has to be thrilled that they retain the top-eight (!) pass catchers including #1 WR Andrew Armstrong (764, 5 TD), and rising star TE Luke Hasz (253, 15.8, 3 TD). We’re not crazy about the offensive line as they lose an NFL DC at center and recall that they allowed an unseemly 47 sacks LY (#128 FBS). The good news is that HC Sam Pittman has SKILLZ that KILLZ when it comes to cobbling together offensive lines so we’ll give him the benefit of the doubt for now.
DEFENSE
WOO PIG was MEH on defense LY (#10 SEC run D, #10 pass efficiency D) and their sack total dropped from 42 in 2022 to 29 last season. Things look pretty good heading into 2024 and it starts up front with a DL that has excellent size in the middle and a pair of PENETRATING DEs in Landon Jackson (6.5 sacks, 13.5 TFL LY) and Albany transfer Anton Juncaj who led the FCS in sacks LY (15). The LB group needs to be completely reloaded and the Razorbacks brought in several quality transfers including Michael Dix (Marshall) who should be a great fit in the middle of the defense. Almost everyone returns on the back end and they added a nice piece from South Alabama in DB Marquise Robinson who has a great shot to pierce the starting lineup. Our RAZORBACKS SEC MEDIA DAYS INSIDERS ** rate this as a sneaky-good stop unit.
** Fact check: Who doesn’t go to SEC Media Days?
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Razorbacks retain ace return man Isaiah Sategna (21.7 KR, PR TD LY) but need to find a new punter and PK. Arkansas hopes that former Hawaii veteran PK Matthew Shipley (30/38 FG L2Y) can fill the void left by the reliable Cam Little.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s not bad at all. The non-conference schedule has two free squares, a tricky game (UAB), and a tough one (at Oklahoma St). They dodged a lot of bullets in SEC action by avoiding ROLL TIDE, Georgia, and Oklahoma, and note that they get to play Texas and LSU at home.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – UAB (Sept 14)
This game pops up between a pair of tough road games (Oklahoma St, Auburn) and UAB can SCORE the FOOTBALL. Also be advised the HC Sam Pittman is just 5-9 ATS in the role of home favorite.
Season Win Total
Market consensus July 18
Over 4.5 -105
Under 4.5 -125
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Over
This probably won’t make our final dance card but we feel strongly that they’ll only need to win a pair of SEC games to hit the over. They’re close to a MORTAL LOCK to pull a significant upset at some point and they’ve got a good shot to beat Mississippi St on the road.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
HC Sam Pittman is 19-13-2 ATS in SEC play (59%).
Arkansas is a pitiful 11-30 SU in true road games over the L10Y.
The Razorbacks are 17-24-3 all-time in bowl action but they’ve won six of the last eight including a 55-53 3OT (!) classic vs Kansas in the 2022 Liberty Bowl.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
Call us crazy, but we like this roster quite a bit more than last year’s version of WOO PIG football, even without KJ Jefferson. It’s questionable whether or not QB Taylen Green can make a successful jump to the SEC but at least he’s surrounded with decent weaponry. The defense isn’t a brick wall but they’ll be able to keep the team in almost every game. We’ll call for five wins and give them an outside shot of getting to a bowl game. We hope they can do it!
As always,
Woooooooooo, Pig! Sooie!
Woooooooooo, Pig! Sooie!
Woooooooooo, Pig! Sooie!
Razorbacks!