College Football Predictions – Arkansas St Red Wolves 2018 NCAA Football Preview
2017 Recap
Record – 7-5
ATS – 6-6
The Red Wolves looked to be on their way to another Sun Belt title when the wheels fell off at South Alabama. Six turnovers will do that to you. They were still alive to bag a share of the conference crown in their regular season finale but somehow lost to Troy while enjoying a 606-293 yard edge. They pulled another “Arkansas St” in the Camellia Bowl and lost an entertaining match-up with MTSU (462-352 yard edge).
This program is one of the more consistent college football programs out there. And they have really spanked their conference opponents over the past three seasons (21-3). Let’s see how they look heading into 2018.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #1
Sun Belt – #1
Arkansas St Red Wolves 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
Hey, now.
Arkansas St has a beast at QB in Justice Hansen who was named Sun Belt OPOY in 2017. Hansen ripped teams apart with almost 4,000 yards passing and 37 TD tosses while rushing for over 400 (!) yards and another seven scores. The WR corps still looks talented and has great size. #1 man Justin McInnis is back this year (800, 16.3, 4 TD) and the Red Wolves add three transfers that promise to give Hansen all kinds of options. What gives us pause for concern? Arkansas St allowed 33 sacks last year (#10 Sun Belt) and the willingness of Mr Hansen to throw picks (16 LY) can make even the best of us lose our temper. The offensive line brings back four starters to the mix including 1st Team SB honoree LT Lanard Bonner and should be able to kick it up a notch in 2018. They will be run blocking for a RB unit that brings back #1 rusher Warren Wand (715, 5.2, 6 TD LY).
This offense feels like an elite group that can put the hurt on pretty much anyone provided they do not self-destruct with mistakes. <grabs popcorn>
DEFENSE
The Red Wolves played solid defense last year finishing #33 in the FBS in rush defense and #40 in pass efficiency D (#3 total defense in Sun Belt). They bagged 30+ sacks for the fourth consecutive campaign. Sadly, ace pass rusher Ja’Von Rolland-Jones departs (13 sacks LY), as does DL Caleb Caston (10 TFL LY) and leading tackler LB Kyle Wilson (2nd Team Sun Belt).
Their fine DC Joe Cauthen only has five returning starters to work with but does have size and JC transfers to work with on the DL, as well as talent and experience in the LB and DB groups. 2nd Team Sun Belt member Justin Clifton had 4.5 TFL last season and 13 (!) PBU. We are a bit worried about the lost production in terms of PENETRATION but still believe this defense will be one of the best in the conference.
SPECIAL TEAMS
We really like the continuity at PK and P, and Sawyer Williams connected on 16/22 FG attempts last season (4/5 from 40+).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Good news and bad news. They have an automatic loss (?) at ROLL TIDE and also need to travel to Tulsa. The promising part of the equation is that they appear to be in the weaker half of the Sun Belt Conference this season.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – UNLV (September 22). This game falls after road tests with the aforementioned ROLL TIDE and Golden Hurricane. It precedes conference play (Georgia Southern on deck) and we would be leery of laying too much lumber in this one.
Season Win Total
Over 8.5 -140
Under 8.5 +110
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over as we approach press time. The juice is not ideal but the conference schedule could be a virtual cakewalk. It probably won’t be, but things set up nicely.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Just a memory jog. The last three coaches at Arkansas St? Bryan Harsin (Boise St) (JUGGERNAUT), Gus Malzahn (Auburn) and Hugh Freeze (former Ole Miss HC, ya they beat ROLL TIDE). Put this in your pipe and smoke it. Blake Anderson will move on to a big-time job at some point.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the RED WOLVES a 6.0 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.
Let’s be honest. The Red Wolves should be able to rip through the conference docket and do well enough to make the NEW conference title game. The offense will be devastating (at times) and the defense just needs to identify new pass rushers to emerge in order to be special. Will that happen? Hard to say.
Long-time MEGALOCKS PLATINUM DIAMOND CLUB members know we really like this program. The issue with backing them with a point spread wager is dealing with the ongoing brain farts that lead to penalties and turnovers. Having said that, they look stacked this year and HC Anderson is 28-23 ATS (54.9%) despite being a favorite in most games. We will be backing these guys <takes deep breath, swig of bathtub prison hooch> <just kidding, not really> more often than fading them this year.
Want more Arkansas St football ?
WEBSITE
http://www.astateredwolves.com/SportSelect.dbml?SPID=2798&SPSID=35558&DB_OEM_ID=7200
FORUM
Free
http://scout.com/college/arkansas-state/Board/The-Den-105452
https://arkansasstate.forums.rivals.com/forums/the-vault.8/
Restricted
https://247sports.com/college/arkansas-state/Board/The-Densider-105446
https://arkansasstate.forums.rivals.com/forums/red-wolf-insider.6/
NEWS
http://www.arkansasonline.com/news/sports/college/asu/
http://bleacherreport.com/arkansas-state-football
http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/arkansas-st-red-wolves
TWITTER
Hashtag – #BuildingAMonster, #WolvesUp
Accounts to follow