Arkansas vs Texas A&M – College Football Predictions
Posted September 22, 2022
The Game
It’s one of the best games of the weekend as Texas A&M and Arkansas meet in Arlington in a battle of two teams very much in the conversation for #2 in the deadly SEC West. WOO PIG sits at 3-0 as we approach press time and they’ve booked wins over Cincinnati and South Cackalacky. Texas A&M hasn’t looked great but they’re 2-1 and they took down YOUR Miami Hurricanes last week despite half of their team being ejected for targeting. **
Let’s go!
** fact check: close to true
The Details
Texas A&M -2 Arkansas (49)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Pick em
MEGALOCKS market consensus – Texas A&M -1.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Texas A&M 25.5 Arkansas 23.5
The Match-Up:
Texas A&M offense vs Arkansas defense
Yup, it’s been ugly, yo. The Aggies mustered 186 yards of offense vs App St and followed that up with 264Y vs the Canes last Saturday. They’re #112 in the FBS in rushing (!) and #99 in passing offense thru three games and that’s gotta improve if they plan on doing any damage in the SEC this season. QB Max Johnson provided a stablizing presence last week but he didn’t show any ability to push the ball down the field. He might be able to do that vs a VERY sketchy Arkansas pass D that’s allowed over 300Y (!) vs all three of their opponents this year. WOO PIG is stout vs the run so the only way Texas A&M can win this game (without the benefit of turnovers, #random) is to find a way to move the ball thru the air. Unlikely, but possible. Also note that WOO PIG has 17 (!) sacks in 3G (#1 FBS).
Arkansas offense vs Texas A&M defense
WOO PIG has rushed for 200+ yards in every game this year and that’s PRIORITY #1 vs Texas A&M on Saturday. Rocket Sanders is a devastating threat at RB (6.7 YPC) and QB KJ Jefferson is always a menace to do damage on the ground. They don’t have a deadly #1 option at WR this year but note that WOO PIG is averaging 9.9 YPC thru the air this year and they can still hit you with the big play in the THROW GAME. Texas A&M has only allowed one play of 30+ yards all season (T3 FBS) so it appears as tho Arkansas will have to be patient and grind away bit by bit. YOUR Miami Hurricanes managed to rush for 175 yards last week vs the Aggies so we expect WOO PIG will have some success on the ground.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Note that the game is being played in Arlington at a neutral site…..WOO PIG took down the Aggies last year 20-10….The INTREPID Marc Lawrence points out that Arkansas HC Sam Pittman is 10-3 ATS in the role of underdog.
Summary
It’s really hard to find a good reason to back the Aggies other than they look really good coming off the bus AND maybe they make a few plays in the THROW GAME. We lean with the proven commodity playing with a chip on their collective shoulders.
Conclusion
Lean – WOO PIG +2
Note:
‘Official play’ implies we’ve played the game for our standard wager amount.
‘Lean’ implies we’re comfortable suggesting a ‘small potatoes’ wager if you want to get some sweet action down on the game. ‘Leans’ are eligible for upgrade to ‘official’ status during the week.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved from a wagering standpoint.