Texas Bowl – Army vs Houston
The Game
Whoa, Nellie! What a contrast in styles.
The Army Black Knights bring their devastating run game to town and take on the explosive Houston Cougars who have scored 31 or more (!) points in every game this season. Army has a record of 10-2 and are looking to bank the first 11-win season in the history of their football program. The Cougars had a disappointing campaign finishing with a record of “just” 8-4. They were one of the favorites to take down the AAC conference title and it did not happen.
The Details
Army -4.5 Houston (60.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Army -3
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Army 32.5 Houston 28
The Match-Up:
Army offense vs Houston defense
Here it comes. Good luck stopping us.
The Black Knights have one of the most efficient offenses the world has ever seen (Just kidding. Not really). They are #2 in the FBS in rushing offense and #22 in passing efficiency. Need a 3rd down conversion? They are #1 in college football. Need a 4th down conversion? They are #1 in college football. We can’t make this stuff up. As a result of all of this “awesomeness” it comes as no surprise that the Black Knights hold the ball for an incredible 38 minutes and 50 seconds (!!) per game. That my friends is how MEGALOCKS readers hit a 780,000 STAR SELL THE FARM SUPER LOCK BOMB when they played Oklahoma. There is only so much the other team can do when they never have the ball. Houston? Well the good news is that they have already faced Navy and managed to win the game (49-36). They also have had extra prep time. It’s really hard to see Houston stopping Army as they are #98 vs the run and totally SUCK EGGS on 3rd down (#129 FBS). And it ‘s NOT good news knowing that star DL Ed Oliver is off to the NFL and not a part of this event.
Houston offense vs Army defense
The game comes down to this. Sorry to be dramatic, but it’s true. Will back-up QB Clayton Tune show enough improvement in this game (due to bowl practices, experience, etc..) to keep the Cougars close? Starting QB D’Eriq King is out BUT the Cougars still managed to finish #6 in total offense (#19 rushing, #14 passing). They have more athleticism than Army is used to seeing and could still cause trouble in this contest. The rushing attack is led by RB Patrick Carr (816, 5 TD) and he bagged 222 yards on the ground in the Cougars’ last two games. The WR corps is deep and as a team they have averaged 13.7 yards per reception. Marquez Stevenson leads they way in this department (947, 14.1, 9 TD). Army is ranked #9 (!) in total defense in the FBS but a big contributor to that ranking is the help they get from the offense (#1 FBS time of possession). The Black Knights are #81 in the FBS in pass efficiency defense and it remains to be seen if they can control the high-octane passing attack of the Cougars. <grabs popcorn>
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Army finished the regular season on an 8-game winning streak whilst Houston lost three of their last four contests…..Army is trying to bag their first 11-win campaign in school history…..Houston HC Major Applewhite is 0-2 in bowl games with the Cougars….Army finished up with a lonnnnnggggg winning streak but the last four victories came against non-JUGGERNAUTS Air Force (3-point win), Lafayette (FCS), Colgate (FCS, not a toothpaste) and Navy (7-point win).
Summary
From a match-up perspective this is as easy as it gets. Great running team vs a team that can’t stop the run. What is keeping us off Army for now? 1) Houston has a lot more speed on offense than the Black Knights are used to seeing 2) As noted above…..the Black Knights have racked up a good record by beating a lot of teams that could be generously be described as “pure filth”. It’s ‘Army or nothing’ right now for us but the market price is just too high for our liking.
Conclusion
Official play: Nothing yet.
Side: Lean to Army
Total: Lean to the under.
As always:
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game. Nothing more. < but always stay tuned for updates >
‘Slight lean’ implies we are almost certain to avoid the game and/or total from a betting standpoint even for ‘small potatoes’. We give an opinion for those who need to get down and want advice.