Army Black Knights 2023 College Football Preview
June 9, 2023
2022 Recap
Record – 6-6
ATS – 6-5 (vs FBS)
The Black Knights got off to a rocky start (1-4) in which they only managed to defeat FCS foe Villanova (W 49-10). The early schedule was tough but they rallied in the second half of the campaign to finish with a record of 6-6. They took down their hated rivals from Navy in a 2OT thriller in December (W 20-17) but watched Air Force walk away with the coveted Commander-In-Chief’s Trophy. Sadly, Army did not participate in bowl action and will look to get back to the postseason in 2023.
Army Black Knights 2023 Outlook
OFFENSE
Army just DID WHAT THEY DO last year and ran the ball the vast majority of the time (289 YPG, #2 FBS) whilst grinding down opposing defenses. However, there are yuuuuge changes on the horizon as the Black Knights have decided to move away from the devastating triple option into a shotgun-based attack. This transition is likely to be a bit painful, especially when you consider that the most experienced QB in terms of passing attempts returning from last season is Bryson Daily (one attempt). It’s unclear what Daily brings to the THROW GAME but he’s definitely dangerous with his legs (two TDs > 50 yards LY in limited action). They’re loaded at RB and they’ll hope for a full season out of the dangerous Tyrell Robinson who missed a good chunk of 2022 due to injury (8.5, 8.4 YPC L2Y). The WR group is a mystery but they bring back Isaiah Alston who’s led Army in receptions and receiving yards in each of the last two years. The OL is a veteran group that should be able to handle the major scheme change.
DEFENSE
Army was a disappointment on defense LY by their standards (#44 total defense; #15, #1, #30 previous 3Y) and they were particularly smelly vs the run (199 YPG, #118), but it should be noted that they played a lot better down the stretch (13,10,17,7,17 points allowed L5G). The Black Knights feature seven returning starters including leading tackler Leo Lowin and a number of solid senior pieces at CB. The bad news is that they’ll be without NFL-caliber LB Andre Carter as well as safety and former captain Marquel Broughton. Our primary concern is a lack of proven PENETRATORS (17 sacks LY, #120) in the first two levels of the stop unit. We expect Army to play with sound fundamentals but this defense doesn’t appear to be a brick wall. Also note that they’ll be on the field more often than usual given the move away from the triple option.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Army is set at PK with Quinn Maretzki (8-10 FG LY) but they’ll need to do a much better job in the punting department (#129 punting average, #123 net punting LY). Tyrell Robinson is a lethal return man who took a punt back to the HIZZY JIZZY WIZZY last year vs Villanova (73-yard PR TD).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – There are some easy spots to work with but this is a much tougher schedule than what they dealt with in 2022. Difficult road games include trips to UTSA, Syracuse, and LSU but at least they play their final true road game on October (!) 21st.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Massachusetts (Oct 28)
This tilt pops up the week after getting their teeth kicked in at LSU and before the rivalry game with Air Force.
Season Win Total
Market consensus, June 9 <wide variety of prices are available>
Over 6 -120
Under 6 +100
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Under
It’s gonna be a fine accomplishment to bag seven wins with that schedule so we’ll side with ‘under’ backers on this bad boy. If you want to play the ‘over’ we recommend trying to find a ‘5.5’ with extra juice. We’ve seen a ‘5.5 -160’ floating around out there.
MEGAmazing Tidbit
Army has tallied nine or more victories in four of the last six seasons (2021, 2020 PLANDEMIC season, 2018 (11 wins), 2017 (11 wins). HC Jeff Monken has an impressive 64-49 (.566) record during his tenure with the Black Knights.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
It’s gonna be a tough road for Army as they transition into a new offensive system. That means more three-and-outs on offense and more time for the defense to spend on the field. If it was anyone but Army we’d post a STRONG SELL opinion but you know they’ll be well coached and they’re tougher than a $3 steak **.
We view their ceiling as seven wins and believe they’ll have trouble booking that sixth win during the regular season. In any event, Go Army!
** Eat ZEE bugs. Wear ZEE mask. Save the planet.